Research On Early Warning Of Bond Default Based On Logistic Model ——Taking Yongmei Holdings As An Example

In recent years,our country’s bond market has developed rapidly,and the scale of bond issuance has continued to expand.It has now become a very important part of my country’s financial system.Before the "11 Chao-Japanese Bond" defaulted in March 2014,in the eyes of investors,rigid redemption was the acquiescence of my country’s bond market.However,with the default of bonds such as "11 Chaodai Bond",the risk of credit bonds has become increasingly prominent.Under the current severe international environment,my country’s economy has gradually entered a new normal,and the supply-side reform has continued to deepen.Bond default events are emerging one after another,affecting the smoothness of financing for some companies and reducing the efficiency of the overall bond market.In November 2020,Yongmei Holdings,which has the highest credit rating of 3A,announced a bond default,which shocked the entire bond market for a while,and its negative impact gradually penetrated into the financial market,seriously impacting investors’ inherent belief in credit bonds.Views,people’s belief in state-owned enterprises in the past also seems to have changed dramatically since this incident.The default event has made it more difficult for the healthy and orderly development of the bond market.The impact of the default is still fermenting in the market for a long time after the default,which has attracted the attention of many scholars,regulators,and financial practitioners.People realized that The importance of breaking the rigid exchange,changing the belief concept of state-owned enterprises,and clearing the bond market of scrap debt,and the premise of taking preventive measures is to be able to predict the potential default risk in advance,so the default warning for relevant bond issuers came into being.Based on the above background,this paper decides to take the default event of Yongmei Holdings as the starting point,draw lessons from it,draw lessons from it,and establish an early warning model that can predict the default probability of Yongmei Holdings and other similar companies,so as to truly serve the bond market.Development,to provide convenience for relevant institutions and personnel.This paper adopts the method of literature research and theoretical analysis,and analyzes the factors of bond default from three different perspectives of macro,industry and company by reading various domestic and foreign related literature,and introduces the theory of early warning of bond default and how to choose the early warning model.Finally,the Logistic model used in this paper is described in detail.This paper also adopts the research method combining case analysis and empirical analysis.First,it introduces the specific cases of Yongmei Holding’s bond default,and expounds from the aspects of bond default subject,event process,follow-up processing and default reasons.Then,based on the research case of Yongmei Holding Group’s bond default,relevant financial indicators,variables and samples were selected,and a binary Logistic model of default risk was constructed based on the financial data of Yongmei Holding and 49 other related companies in the year,and tested Yongmei.The default probability of the holding company,back-tested the default risk of the other 49 companies in the original sample,and predicted the default risk of 20 companies in 2021,warning operators,investors and regulators about corporate bond defaults risk.Finally,it puts forward relevant suggestions for operators,investors and regulators on how to strengthen investor protection and guide investors to establish correct risk management awareness.