Research On The Causes And Risks Of Bond Default Of Private Enterprises

Bond market is an important part of China's financial market.In recent years,with the continuous development and improvement of China's bond market,its risks are gradually accumulating.Private enterprises play an important role in China's economic development,but the financing difficulties they face have been restricting the development of private economy.Under the influence of China's macroeconomic downturn,the pace of deleveraging is accelerating,and the difficulty of external financing of private enterprises is further increased.The narrowing of financing channels and a series of problems of private enterprises have led to the continuous increase of cash flow pressure of private enterprises,intensified bond risk exposure and frequent bond default events.In this context,it is of great practical significance to study the causes and risks of bond default of private enterprises.In this paper,Jinhong holding bond default as the research object,in-depth analysis of the causes of Jinhong holding bond default,and through empirical research to measure the risk.First of all,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the current situation and characteristics of private enterprise bond default,defines the research object,combs the early warning signs of private enterprise bond default combined with the existing research literature,and establishes a case analysis framework.Secondly,it describes and analyzes the basic situation,default process and bond default disposal of Jinhong holdings.Furthermore,based on the case analysis framework,the paper analyzes the causes of bond default of Jinhong holding from macro factors,industry factors and enterprise factors.In the process of empirical test,Z-score Model and KMV model are used for risk measurement,and the results of Z-score Model,KMV model and bond rating agencies are compared to verify the applicability of Z-score Model and KMV model.Finally,based on the above research results,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for bond issuers,investors and regulators on how to prevent the default risk of private enterprises.Through in-depth research,this paper draws the following conclusions: there are many reasons for the bond default of Jinhong holdings.First,the decline of macro-economy and the tightening of financing scale lead to the decline of the company's external financing capacity;The development of the natural gas industry is hindered,and the environmental protection industry has entered the shuffling period,which further affects the company's profitability.Second,the company's strategic investment is radical,resulting in the rolling of short-term debt;the high proportion of shareholders' equity pledge rate,resulting in the company's liquidity gap;the high concentration of upstream customers,frequent negative news from partners,further increasing the company's operational risk;the deterioration of the company's financial situation is also an important reason for bond default.Thirdly,the default distance of KMV model decreases and the probability of default increases when the Z value of the company is in the bankruptcy range in the early stage of bond default.