A Study On The Measurement Of Implied Carbon In China’s Foreign Trade From The Perspective Of Value Added

Economic globalization has brought unprecedented development opportunities to China’s foreign trade,and with the deepening of globalization,foreign trade has gradually become an important force for the lasting development of China’s economy and society.Promoting green and low-carbon economic and social development,as mentioned in the report of the 20 th Party Congress,is a key link to achieve high-quality development,and high-quality trade development is an important contributor to high-quality economic development.The key to achieving high-quality trade development lies in how to develop green and low-carbon foreign trade,so it is especially important to account for the implied carbon in China’s foreign trade.At present,the following problems exist in the implied carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade value added.First,because China has maintained a trade surplus in recent years,some countries believe that China has a serious "trade imbalance" phenomenon,and the real trade benefits of China are overestimated,and the carbon emissions of trade are also exaggerated due to the overestimation of trade value added.A glance at China’s performance in the global trade market shows that the characteristics of China’s trade goods are basic,bulk and raw materials,and the economic added value generated by trade goods in the process of trade is low,while the carbon emissions generated by low-end manufacturing goods in the process of production are high,and China’s foreign trade is characterized by low value added and high carbon emissions.Second,in the context of vertical specialization,the results of measuring China’s domestic trade mainly in processing trade under the gross value perspective have the problem that the implicit carbon of intermediate products’ added value is double-counted,and the measurement results are not conducive to clarifying the division of China’s carbon emission responsibilities in the global trade market.The traditional measurement of the implied carbon in foreign trade from the gross value perspective is based on the implied carbon in value added of trade goods at each link,without taking into account the fact that the implied carbon in value added of intermediate products of trade goods is double-counted at different links.Third,China’s export trade with other countries(or regions)generates more implied carbon emissions than its import trade,so China becomes a net emitter of trade implied carbon.Influenced by the technological level of other countries(or regions),China’s net implied carbon emissions from foreign trade show an incremental trend.Fourth,the degree of trade structure optimization,technology level and energy utilization rate of Chinese industries are lower than those of other developed countries(or regions),resulting in more high carbon emission and low value-added industries in China than other developed countries(or regions)and higher total implied carbon emissions from trade.The research focuses on the current problems of China’s foreign trade value-added implied carbon emissions,firstly,we re-measure the level of China’s foreign trade valueadded implied carbon based on input-output model and total trade accounting method under the perspective of value added,and secondly,we analyze the structural decomposition and influence factors of the measurement results through structural decomposition method and STIRPAT model,and get the following conclusions.(1)The accounting of China’s foreign trade value-added implied carbon is more reasonable under the value-added perspective.The traditional value-added carbon measurement method ignores the problem of double counting the implied carbon of intermediate products,overestimates the implied carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade,and is not conducive to clarifying China’s carbon emission responsibility in the global trade market.By re-measuring the implied carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade from the perspective of value added,the part of the implied carbon of intermediate products in the trade process that is double-counted is deducted,and the true level of implied carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade value added is reflected.(2)China’s overall foreign trade value added implied carbon shows a fluctuating upward trend.Whether it is exports or imports,China’s foreign trade value added implied carbon emissions fluctuate and increase from 2000 to 2018,among which the trade implied carbon emissions decreased from 2008 to 2009 due to the financial crisis,which led to the reduction of China’s foreign trade scale and the reduction of trade value added resulting in the reduction of trade value added implied carbon emissions.From 2015 to 2016,the implied carbon emissions from trade decreased due to the domestic macroeconomic downturn,which led to a decline in the level of implied carbon emissions from trade value added as a result of the shrinking scale of foreign trade due to the lack of demand in the domestic consumer market as a result of the macroeconomic downturn.(3)In terms of the implied carbon generated from China’s trade transactions with its major trading partners,China’s trade transactions with the EU,the US,the UK and India are net trade emitters due to the scale of import and export trade,and the implied carbon emissions from export trade are higher than those from import trade.In China’s trade transactions with Japan,South Korea and Australia,due to the high technology level of trade partners,China bears more carbon emission responsibility in the trade process under the premise that the scale of import trade is larger than that of export.(4)From the results of measuring the implied carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade value added by industry,the top three industries in terms of implied carbon emissions are other non-metallic mineral products,basic metals,and land transportation and pipeline transportation.On the import side,the top three industries in terms of trade implied carbon emissions are wholesale and retail trade,other transportation equipment,and information technology and other information services.(5)For the structural decomposition of China’s foreign trade valueadded implied carbon,the effect of technology on China’s foreign trade value-added implied carbon is negative and smaller than the effect of trade structure and economic scale,whether at the overall,country or industry level.The effects of trade structure and economic scale on China’s foreign trade value added implied carbon are positive,and the effects of economic scale are larger than those of trade structure.(6)China’s foreign trade value added implied carbon is influenced by various factors.At the overall export level,the top three factors are GDP,total exports and R&D level.At the overall import level,the top three factors are domestic recycling intensity,international recycling intensity,and environmental regulation level,respectively.At the country export level,the factors affecting the implied carbon of China’s trade value added with its major trading partners are different,and in the case of the EU,the top three factors are domestic recycling intensity,international recycling intensity and R&D level.At the level of country-specific imports,the ranking of the factors influencing the implicit carbon in the value added of trade between China and its major trading partners is consistent,with the top three factors being domestic recycling intensity,international recycling intensity and R&D level.At the industry export level,the top three factors are R&D level,environmental and resource productivity level,and domestic recycling intensity.At the import level,the top three influencing factors are energy intensity,R&D level,and environmental and resource productivity level.Finally,based on the above findings,we propose targeted suggestions to help realize the greening and low-carbonization of China’s trade.