Prevention And Evaluation On Causal Factors In Emergency Processes Of Fire Accidents For Oil/gas Storage And Transportation

Safe oil/gas storage and transportation are important to ensure the safety of people’s livelihoods and the healthy development of the economy.Once a fire or explosion accident occurs during oil/gas storage and transportation,it may cause serious consequences such as casualties,economic losses,and environmental pollution.However,much can be learned from real-world data.For example,secondary accidents caused by improper emergency responses have sometimes occurred,which have increased the casualties,expanded the accident situation,and increased environmental pollution.It can be seen that there are potential causal factors in the emergency responses to accidents and post-reconstruction process.These causal factors and their interactions are the keys to secondary accidents and serious consequences.This effectively proves that if there is no clear analysis of the causes of the secondary accident and the degree of influence and importance are not clear,it will be difficult for decision makers to make correct emergency decisions based on the current accident state.This will cause the accident to become difficult to control and even worsen.Therefore,find out these possible causative factors,and analyze the influence and extent of these factors on the accident.It can fundamentally reveal the basic mechanism of accident evolution in the emergency process,and provide a scientific basis for the implementation of more targeted active protective measures beforehand.From the perspective of the emergency processes safety,this paper presents a novel analysis method for the causal factors in the emergency processes of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation based on fuzzy dynamic fault tree(FDFT).Twenty-one causal factors are summarized according to the statistical analysis of actual accident cases.The FDFT model of secondary accidents is established,and the fuzzy static subtree(FSST)and fuzzy dynamic subtree(FDST)are quantitatively analyzed,the fuzzy probability of the top event is calculated.The fuzzy probability importance and fuzzy critical importance of each basic event are analyzed.The casual factors with the high influencing probability and the most probable paths leading to secondary accidents are found out.In addition,the possible problems in emergency processes are acquired and some countermeasures are put forward by using the proposed method.Finally,the proposed method is applied to analyze the causal factors in the emergency processes of two actual accident cases(Oil pipeline explosion accident in Dalian’s Xingang Harbor on July 16,2010 and August 12 Extraordinarily Big Fire in No.1 Oil Tank Reservoir of Qingdao Petroleum).The research results have important scientific and guiding significance for revealing the evolution law of secondary accidents in emergency processes and ensuring the safe operation and management throughout the whole life cycle in oil-gas storage and transportation.To further analyze the causal factors,these causal factors are decomposed into three layers: the criterion layer,variable layer,and bottom layer.An improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)was used to establish the relationships between the bottom factors and variable factors.A model of the relationship between the variable layer and criterion layer was also established using the regression analysis method.This made it possible to establish a multiple linear regression model between the causal factors described in binary numbers and the accident consequences described in decimal numbers.The established regression model was combined with the GM(1,1)grey prediction method to test the generalization ability of this model with actual accident case data,and it was found that the prediction ability of the established model was better than that of the GM(1,1)model alone.In addition,the relative contribution of each causal factor was evaluated using the mutation progression method.The main factors affecting the consequences of the accident were found,and corresponding preventive countermeasures were proposed.The research results have important guiding significance for understanding the quantitative influences of causal factors on the consequences of accidents,improving emergency response capabilities,reducing accident losses,and avoiding secondary accidents.