Research On The Prediction And Emission Reduction Benefit Of New Energy Logistics Vehicles In Beijing

With the increasing attention of global governments to climate change,how to control the deterioration of climate problems has become a difficult point.For each city,how to solve the environmental problems caused by automobile emissions has been widely concerned.The urban distribution of new energy logistics vehicles,the object of this paper,refers to the new energy logistics vehicles that carry out goods distribution in urban areas and suburbs,which bear the responsibility of distribution for urban residents and enterprises and meet the needs of people’s production and life.Due to its long running time and long operating mileage,the emission reduction problem is worthy of attention.The replacement of new energy logistics vehicles to traditional fuel logistics vehicles has become an important way to solve this problem.In this paper,the prediction of the number of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing city distribution and the benefit of emission reduction are studied,which can provide guidance for future planning and decision-making,and promote low-carbon economy and sustainable development.By analyzing and forecasting the number of new energy logistics vehicles,we can assess their role in reducing exhaust emissions,and provide a basis for policy makers to formulate more effective emission reduction policies.Specifically,this paper studies from the following aspects:(1)Starting from the current development status of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing,this paper focuses on analyzing the main factors affecting the current ownership and sales of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing,combining the relevant policies of the central government and Beijing and the relevant theoretical basis for analysis and summary,and then analyzes the research status quo at home and abroad to form the research ideas of this paper;(2)Bass multi-scenario simulation and prediction model considering improvement of influencing factors was established through multi-scenario analysis of major influencing factors and weighted scores.On this basis,two scenarios were set to consider the complete opening of the right of way and the improvement of urban logistics distribution policy.The predicted value of the future number of new energy logistics vehicles under multi-scenario cities was obtained by SPSS data analysis software.To provide reference for policy makers to optimize policies;(3)Greet software is used to analyze the emission reduction and emission reduction benefits of the whole life cycle based on the predicted value of the number of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing from 2022 to 2030.On the one hand.it predicts the future emission reduction market of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing;on the other hand,it can provide reference value for the realization of the goals of "green logistics" and "green transportation".The research results show that:after the removal of subsidies,right-of-way advantages,logistics distribution policies and the improvement of supporting facilities may become an important consideration for current logistics enterprises and end users to choose new energy logistics vehicles;In this paper,by adding influence factors to improve the coefficient of Bass model.the scale of BASS model will reach 92107 in 2030.Based on the analysis of pollutant emissions in the whole life cycle of the logistics vehicles,the conclusion shows that the greenhouse gas emissions in the whole life cycle of the new energy logistics vehicles are 12.47%lower than that of the fuel logistics vehicles,but the emission of CO2 is much lower than that of the fuel logistics vehicles,nearly 50%.It is found that the total emission reduction of CO2,NOx,SO2 in the whole life cycle of the unit new energy logistics vehicle replacing the traditional fuel logistics vehicle is 48.747t,and the emission reduction benefit is 4215.144 yuan.In 2022,the total benefit of promoting emission reduction of new energy logistics vehicles in urban distribution will be 291.5819 million yuan,and the total green benefit of emission reduction will be 386.7172 million yuan by 2030,an increase of 32.63%.Finally,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions suitable for the development of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing:(1)scientific overall consideration of all resources to improve the right of way of new energy logistics vehicles in Beijing;(2)Improve the policy environment in the field of new energy logistics vehicle distribution and give play to market initiative.