| With the acceleration of global warming,the earth’s resources are being severely damaged and the impact is taking an incalculable toll on the economy.In light of this,countries have begun to focus on environmental governance and have signed the Kyoto Protocol with a view to addressing this challenge through the establishment of a global carbon financial market.China is the largest developing country and one of the largest emitters of carbon emissions.In response,the government has adopted a series of environmental governance policies and measures focusing on carbon emission reduction in order to promote the reduction of carbon emissions.In addition,China has launched carbon trading pilot projects in eight provinces and municipalities,and will officially launch a national carbon emissions trading market in 2021,with good development results in emission reduction.This paper aims to explore in depth the factors influencing the price of carbon emissions trading,with a view to improving the pricing mechanism of China’s carbon emissions trading market at an early date.This paper combines theoretical research and empirical analysis,through analysis and review of existing literature at home and abroad,based on relevant theories in economics and finance,and taking into account the current situation of the carbon trading market in each pilot province and city,it analyses the influence mechanism of several factors on the price of carbon emission trading,selecting manufacturing PMI,China coal price index,AQI index and EUA futures price as the main influencing factors.Using the five carbon trading pilot markets of Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei,Guangdong and Shenzhen as research samples,monthly data from June 2017 to May2021 were collected,and various econometric methods of VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition were applied to empirically study the influencing factors of carbon emissions trading prices,focusing on the influence process and the degree of influence of each influencing factor.The research results show that carbon prices are more influenced by historical prices,which indicates that China’s carbon trading market is not yet perfect.The manufacturing PMI has little impact on the carbon trading price in the five pilot provinces and cities,while the price of coal is more closely associated with the carbon trading market.The air quality index has a greater impact on carbon trading prices in the five pilot markets,especially for the Beijing,Hubei and Guangdong markets.The international carbon price has a smaller impact on the price of carbon trading in China.Finally,based on the empirical results and taking into account China’s national conditions,suggestions are made in six aspects,including improving the national carbon market policy regulation and control system,optimising the carbon emission rights market mechanism,and promoting the financial innovation of carbon financial products in the carbon emission rights market,to promote the stable and steady development of China’s carbon trading market price.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the selection of research objects and indicators.This paper selects five representative carbon pilot markets,which can form a cross-sectional comparison and can reflect the situation more comprehensively while analyzing the impact of various factors on carbon prices;at the same time,the inclusion of air quality index and foreign carbon prices as explanatory variables can provide more references for subsequent researchers. |
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