Oil Price Analysis And Forecast Under The Impact Of COVID-19

After our entry into WTO,the economy with industrial manufacturing as the core got rapid development.Domestic petroleum consumption has increased rapidly,and China has gradually become the world’s first oil importing country and oil consuming country from an oil exporting country.The petroleum problem has become a key strategy to restrict China’s eco nomic and social development.In 2018,China’s crude oil futures were officially listed,which also means that Petro-CNY has stepped onto the stage of history,and China should strive for pricing power and dominance in the global crude oil market.The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 disrupted the pace of economic and social development around the world.After nearly three years of anti-epidemic work,although the global COVID-19 epidemic has improved,it seems that it will become similar to influenza virus and coexist with human society for a long time.This paper mainly studied the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices during the COVID-19 pandemic,compared the changes of domestic futures prices before and after the COVID-19 pandemic,and analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the crude oil futures prices in China.The ARMA-ARCH family model is established to compare and analyze SC crude oil futures price return rate and BRENT crude oil futures price return rate,and it is found that ARMA-GARCH model is more suitable for analyzing and forecasting short-term time series.At the same time,it was also found that the volatility of SC crude oil futures had a long impact,which has certain relevance with the management of crude oil price in our country.With the liberalization of China’s crude oil price management system and the profit space brought by the violent fluctuation of oil price after the COVID-19 outbreak,Chinese crude oil futures investors are also actively participating in the crude oil futures market.