| Fossil energy consumption is constantly promoting the process of global industrialization,which leads to the problem of climate warming.It has become a global consensus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and actively respond to climate change.At the end of the 20 th century,in order to solve the problem of greenhouse effect,major countries in the world signed the Kyoto protocol.Since the promulgation and implementation of the protocol,the carbon emission trading market has emerged as the times require.After nearly 20 years of development,the foreign carbon emission trading market has grown into a pivotal emerging financial market,but the domestic carbon emission trading market has just started.China,with its steady and rapid economic development,is the world’s largest carbon emitter,which plays a crucial role in global response to climate change.For carbon dioxide emissions,our government promises to strive to reach the peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.This means that China’s response to climate change has entered a new stage,which highlights the value of carbon emission trading as a low-cost emission reduction tool to promote carbon emission reduction and help carbon neutralization,and accelerates the process of building a unified national carbon market.Therefore,this paper studies the correlation between the price of carbon emission permits and crude oil futures price,and explores how to improve China’s carbon emission trading market,so as to help achieve carbon peak and carbon neutral vision.Based on the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper takes eight carbon trading pilot prices and Shanghai crude oil futures prices,collects the daily data from March 18,2018 to December 31,2020,establishes VAR model,carries out impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,and studies the impact between crude oil prices and carbon prices from the perspective of short-term price shocks.On this basis,this paper uses dcc-garch model to quantitatively analyze the dynamic correlation between carbon price return and crude oil price return,and establishes a variable correlation coefficient chart,showing the long-term fluctuation characteristics of carbon price and crude oil price return.Finally,according to the relevant results,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve China’s carbon emission trading market.The results show that: first,the carbon emission prices represented by China’s eight pilot carbon markets are closely related to the price of Shanghai crude oil futures;in terms of short-term impact effect,Shanghai crude oil futures can affect the trading price of carbon emission rights,and vice versa.However,the impact of crude oil price on carbon price,impact response and positive and negative directions of each pilot carbon market are quite different.Secondly,the dcc-garch model is established for carbon price return and crude oil price return.The conditional variance equation of most markets in the model is close to 1,which indicates that the long-term sustainability between carbon market and crude oil market is significant,and the short-term impact is not significant.There is indeed a dynamic correlation between carbon price and crude oil price in some pilot carbon markets,which indicates that there is an impact between crude oil market and carbon emission trading market.Therefore,on the one hand,we can use the carbon emission trading price regulation system to form a forced mechanism to control oil prices and greenhouse gas emissions,so as to guide the green low-carbon economy and effectively improve the energy structure;on the other hand,we can improve the construction of the crude oil market,grasp the source of carbon price fluctuations,ensure the steady operation of the carbon emission trading market,and promote the mature development of the carbon emission trading market. |
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