| Since the 18th CPC National Congress,the Party Central Committee has attached great importance to the construction of ecological civilization and has made positive progress in the green development of agriculture.However,agricultural ecological environment management still faces the challenge of managing the stock and curbing the increment,so more efforts are needed to promote agricultural green development.Green finance is not only a policy instrument for external government intervention,but also a financial tool that follows the laws of the market and has a great role in improving agricultural production efficiency and protecting the ecological environment.Therefore,the development of green finance is crucial to promote the green development of agriculture in order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.The main research of this paper is to investigate the impact of green finance on agricultural carbon emissions using empirical analysis.The innovative point is to conduct an in-depth study from two perspectives of green credit and green insurance,and to consider the mediating effect of industrial upgrading and technological progress in the process to study the mechanism of its effect.The results show that the effects of green finance on agricultural carbon emissions show a non-linear relationship,and the effects of green credit and green insurance on agricultural carbon emissions are not the same,with green credit acting on agricultural carbon emissions mainly through the green industry upgrading pathway and green insurance acting on agricultural carbon emissions through the green technology advancement pathway.When the green credit level is lower than the threshold value,enterprises will expand their production scale after getting the green credit,resulting in more carbon emissions.When the green credit policy is improved and exceeds the threshold value,enterprises with green and low-carbon development will be more likely to get financing and lead to the transformation of agricultural industry structure,resulting in the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions.And agricultural insurance will have a positive U-shaped effect on agricultural carbon emissions because when agricultural insurance is below the critical value,agricultural enterprises will increase their investment in green technology as their agricultural production is guaranteed to a certain extent,while when agricultural insurance is above the critical value,moral hazard problems will arise and enterprises will reduce their investment in technology due to the increased protection of agricultural insurance.Therefore,the investment in green technology shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,which leads to a positive U-shaped relationship of decreasing and then increasing agricultural carbon emissions through the transmission effect of green technology.By analyzing the regional heterogeneity,it is found that the inverted Ushaped relationship of green credit exists significantly in both eastern and central regions,but is less significant in western regions.At the same time,the inverted U-shaped relationship is significantly present in both southern and northern regions,but the inverted U-shaped relationship is stronger in the north,and agricultural carbon emissions are more influenced by other factors in the south.Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical results,we propose targeted policy recommendations for the healthy development of agricultural green finance in China to promote the accomplishment of the "double carbon" goal in agriculture and achieve green agricultural development.These include increasing credit policy support,strengthening green insurance product innovation,and promoting agricultural modernization.This study will not only help China’s agriculture achieve the goal of "double carbon",but also play a role in consolidating food security,promoting high-quality agricultural development,and advancing the rural revitalization strategy. |
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