Analysis On The Development Trend Of China’s Primary Aluminum Industry During The Period Of Excess Production Capacity

In 2015,China’s primary aluminum industry was sluggish,and aluminum prices reached their lowest point in nearly 20 years in October.The future development of the primary aluminum industry becomes a hot topic and attracts more and more attention.This thesis predicts the future trend of the China’s primary aluminum industry based of reviewing a large number of relevant literatures,analysis some imformation from the supply of upstream bauxite and alumina,the consumption of downstream aluminum,and the impact of power supply and cost and the technology of electrolysis.Some results are shown as follows:(1)China’s bauxite quality and recervation is relatively low,but the bauxite supply for Chinese market will be sufficient in the near future according to the present Bauxite imported policy.More and more aluminum smelters will establish their own power plants which will support their development.China’s large-scale aluminum reduction cells technology and devices have developed rapidly in recent years,and will continue to develop in the future to improve its competitiveness in the international market.(2)China take measures and different power price policy to inhance the standards and requiements for establishing a new aluminium smelter,which can dissolved the problem of primary aluminium excess production capacity to a certain degree.(3)After the excess production capacity of primary aluminum disappears,the aluminum market will return to the status of supply-demand balance and keep to a stable situation.The application of downstream high-end aluminum will increase research and improve its competitiveness in the high-end aluminum market,which will accerlerate to consume the excess production capacity of primary aluminum.(4)The present problem of primary aluminium excess production capacity influenced by the price and supply maket will fluctuated for sometime.After some repeated fluctuations,the primary aluminum market will return normal.Therefore,the primary aluminum market will not immediately pick up in the future,and the downturn will continue for some time.