The Impact Of Innovative Cities And Carbon Emission Trading On The Carbon Emission Effect Of Low-carbon Cities Pilot

Under the constraint of the target of "carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060",and the tradition of "pilot before promotion",China has introduced a series of pilot environmental regulation policies to control carbon emissions.However,the pilot scope of different policies overlaps,and there are two pilot cities,that is,the phenomenon of policy superposition.So for prefecture-level cities,is the more policies the better for carbon emission reduction?Are there complementary or substitution effects between policies?From the perspective of policy overlay,based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2018,and considering the robustness of the research,this paper simultaneously uses two methods,the difference difference method(DID)and the synthetic Difference difference method(SDID),to evaluate the effect of the double pilot policies produced by the overlay of carbon emission reduction policies.The research of policy effect evaluation should be based on a clear institutional background and the actual implementation of policies.This paper comprehensively considers the nature of relevant carbon emission reduction policies,the specifications of sponsoring departments,the scope of policies involved,whether there is an assessment mechanism and financial subsidies,and selects the pilot policies of innovation-oriented cities,carbon emission trading pilot policies and low-carbon cities as the research objects.The assessment indicators of the construction of innovation-oriented cities involve carbon emission related indicators.Carbon emission trading controls carbon emission through market-based mechanism,while low-carbon cities directly require pilot cities to control carbon emission.Due to the differences in policy implementation time and pilot scope,the overlap between innovative cities and carbon emission trading pilot is small.Therefore,this paper only studies the superimposed effect of policies between low-carbon cities and innovative cities,as well as the superimposed effect of policies between low-carbon cities and carbon emission trading.The low-carbon city pilot covers innovative cities and carbon emission trading pilot.Starting from the pilot policies of low-carbon cities,the impacts of single pilot of low-carbon cities,dual pilot of low-carbon cities and innovative cities,carbon emission trading and dual pilot of low-carbon cities on carbon emission and economy are studied respectively.In addition,in order to eliminate the nonrandom interference of pilot selection,this paper analyzes the endogeneity of pilot selection.The study found that the effect of more policies is not better,and different policy combinations will produce different effects.Specifically,firstly,individual pilot policies of lowcarbon cities can promote carbon emission reduction to a certain extent,but their impact on economic growth is not significant.Second,compared with the separate pilot policies of lowcarbon cities,the twin pilot programs of innovative cities and low-carbon cities have stronger carbon emission reduction effect,but to some extent,they will hinder economic growth,while the carbon emission trading program and the twin pilot programs of low-carbon cities have weaker carbon emission reduction effect,but can promote economic growth.Third,the estimated coefficients of SDID in each group of estimates are smaller than DID,which indicates that only using DID will overestimate the impact of pilot policies.In order to make the study more general,other carbon emission reduction policies are selected as alternative variables to be estimated from the perspective of policy nature.Existing studies on carbon emission reduction usually only focus on the impact of a single policy,that is,comparative analysis of the effect difference between pilot and non-pilot policies.However,this paper focuses on the complementary or alternative role of different policies,compares and analyzes the policy effect difference between double pilot and single pilot,and conducts a more detailed study on the effect of carbon emission reduction.In order to help the government to make the best use of limited policy resources,reduce the waste of policy resources,and successfully achieve the"double carbon" goal.