Analysis Of Spatial And Temporal Differences In Carbon Emission Intensity Of China’s Thermal Power Industry And Influencing Factors

In the environment of global warming,the rise of carbon dioxide emissions has caused widespread concern in various countries.Carbon emissions from the thermal power industry are an important source of carbon emissions in China,and because of its large emissions and high emission intensity,it has become a key concern for China’s energy conservation and emission reduction work,and it is important to improve the efficiency of the thermal power industry and reduce carbon emissions from the thermal power industry for China to take the path of sustainable development.In this context,this paper constructs a model to calculate the carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry based on the carbon emission coefficient method proposed by IPCC,calculates the carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in 30 provincial administrative regions of China from 2005 to 2020,and analyzes the spatial and temporal differences of carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in China by using linear propensity estimation and standard deviation ellipsoid method,and then analyzes the influence of various factors on the carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in China by using spatial and temporal geographical weighted regression model.The spatial and temporal differences of carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in China were analyzed by using spatial and temporal geographical weighted regression model.The study shows that:(1)the carbon emission intensity of China’s thermal power industry is decreasing,and the gap between provinces is gradually decreasing,from219.43 in 2005 to 157.12 in 2020.the decrease is faster in the eastern and northern regions of China,while the decrease is medium in most provinces.(2)The carbon emission intensity of China’s thermal power industry shows an obvious positive autocorrelation in space,indicating the existence of an obvious spatial agglomeration feature.In terms of changing trends,the carbon emission intensity of China’s thermal power industry has experienced a process of rising and then fluctuating down,with the spatial agglomeration effect gradually weakening over time,and the overall spatial differences are gradually narrowing.(3)The standard deviation ellipse of carbon emission intensity of China’s thermal power industry covers most of the provincial administrative regions,and the ellipse range gradually expands during the study period,from 603,230 km~2in 2005 to 661,298 km~2in 2020.but the center of gravity migration rate is relatively stable.The ellipse has a general northeast-southwest trend,and although there are changes during the study period,the overall direction remains unchanged.During the study period,the ellipse range in the northeast region changes less,the ellipse in the eastern region migrates and changes significantly to the south,and the standard deviation ellipse in both the central and western regions migrates to the north.(4)The carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in different time and provincial administrative regions is influenced by factors such as industrial structure,population size,power supply structure,total thermal power,R&D level and opening up to the outside world,etc.There are some differences.The same influencing factors have different effects on the carbon emission intensity of thermal power industry in different years.Specifically,the regression coefficients of industrial structure and power supply structure are positive during the study period,the regression coefficients of population size and total thermal power are negative in general,and the regression coefficients of R&D level show a positive and then negative trend during the study period.The same province may also have different positive and negative effects during different years.