Research On Production Risk Assessment Of Oil Drilling Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

The petroleum industry has always been the economic lifeline of a country and the black blood on which a country operates.It has a real impact on the political and economic status of the country,and the drilling project,as an important link,shoulders the important task of exploration and collection of oil and gas resources.For a long time,the oil drilling industry has been regarded as a high-input and high-risk operation project,whose investment cost accounts for more than 60%of the whole industry chain of oil exploration and production.At the same time,it is also a project prone to safety production accidents.Its characteristics are that there are risks in every technical link of construction,and because the risks are highly concealed,Due to the high severity of the consequences,coupled with the close relationship between the builder and the machinery,how to effectively control and prevent risks has become an urgent problem for every drilling industry practitioner.In order to study the problems of production risk management in the oil drilling industry and solve the situation of frequent accidents in the production process,so as to achieve the ultimate goal of risk reduction,this paper firstly established the production risk management index system of the oil drilling industry from the aspects of human factors,equipment factors,environmental factors and management factors by analyzing the current situation and problems of the oil drilling industry.Then,the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method is applied to evaluate the production risk of oil drilling.At the same time,through the empirical analysis of the questionnaire results of A petroleum company,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Combined with the research and analysis of the production process risk of the international and domestic oil drilling industry,the importance of production risk assessment is fully demonstrated from the perspective of the industry’s development prospects and related needs.At the same time,the feasibility of production risk assessment is demonstrated from the relevant national policy theory,the gradually improved risk management requirements of the industry and the importance each oil drilling employee attaches to safety.(2)Based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Process(AHP),select and set up preliminary evaluation indexes by combing related factors.By means of questionnaire survey,expert scoring and other methods,specific factors of indicators are screened,so as to construct the final evaluation index system.The index system takes the human factor,equipment factor,environmental factor and management factor as the key factors,including a total of 17 specific second-level indicators.(3)Select the employees of oil drilling company A to conduct a questionnaire survey,and carry out empirical analysis according to the statistical results.The research results show that the above 17 specific indicators are highly consistent with the research results of relevant experts and scholars at home and abroad,thus demonstrating the effectiveness of the index system.(4)According to the evaluation results,ABC risk classification is adopted to put forward the key direction of production risk control.For class A risks,the control should be strengthened,focusing on the qualified rate of hidden danger rectification on the site,the violation rate of operators,the realization rate of safety inspection,the physical and mental health of employees and the perfection of the system,etc.For class B risks,countermeasures should be taken.Prevent it from turning into Class A risks,Class C risks can be appropriately reduced attention,but still to prevent the intensification of risks.This study can provide some theoretical and practical reference for oil drilling production risk assessment and risk management.