| With the continuous increase of financial capital participating in the commodity market after the 21st century,the commodity market has shown the characteristics of financialization,in which the price of metals based on the futures market presents frequent and violent fluctuations.The demand for copper in the global market has changed from industrial demand to financing demand,supplemented by industrial demand.Correspondingly,copper prices have evolved from only reflecting a single commodity attribute to reflecting both financial attributes and commodity attributes.As the world’s largest copper consumer,China occupies an important position in my country’s industrial system,and has huge market demand in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.The drastic fluctuations in the international copper price will be further transmitted to the domestic market,which will have a major impact on my country’s industrial economic system.This paper uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to verify whether there is financialization in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain,and then specifically analyzes the impact of the upper,middle and lower reaches.The first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research background and research significance of commodity financialization and the related literature review.The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of bulk commodities.It conducts specific theoretical analysis from the definition,main manifestations and causes of financialization,and introduces the commodity attributes and financial attributes of bulk commodity copper.The third chapter is the analysis and research of the relationship between international copper price fluctuations and my country’s economy,and theoretically analyzes the impact path of international copper price fluctuations on my country’s industrial chain and the related impacts of upstream,midstream and downstream.The fourth chapter is an empirical test of the impact of copper price fluctuations on my country’s industrial chain,selecting data from March 2006 to May 2022,using LME 3-month copper price,industrial added value,and PPI indicators as endogenous variables,and financialization indicators as Exogenous variables,the VAR model is established to study the impact of international copper prices on my country’s industrial added value and PPI,as well as the industrial added value and PPI of the upper,middle and lower reaches of the copper industry chain.The fifth chapter is the empirical test of the correlation between the international copper futures and my country’s copper futures.Select the data from March 2006 to May 2022,use the VAR model to explore the correlation between Lun copper and Shanghai copper,and explore the role of my country’s copper in the global copper market.The pricing power of futures prices.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.The first is to strengthen the ability of enterprise risk prevention and control,and the second is to improve the pricing power of my country’s bulk commodities.This study finds that copper price fluctuations have a long-term positive effect on China’s PPI index fluctuations,but have a weaker impact on industrial output.Financial speculation is an important determinant of commodity prices,and the phenomenon of financialization has strengthened the impact of copper futures price shocks on industrial output,that is,financialization has an amplifying effect on output fluctuations.At the same time,due to the different positions of the industrial chain,the response modes of the output of various industries to the impact of copper prices also show differences.Copper price fluctuations mainly have a positive impact on the upstream and downstream industries,but have a negative impact on the output of the midstream;and the copper price fluctuation Fluctuations have a positive effect on the PPI in the upper,middle and lower reaches. |
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