Study On The Influencing Factors Of Polyester Market Price And The Linkage Effect Of Its Industrial Chain

With the vigorous development of chemical fiber industry and the continuous expansion of polyester trade scale,under the background of Sino US trade war,polyester price fluctuation affects the development of chemical fiber industry and even the whole textile industry.How to maintain the stability of polyester price level is an important research topic for the stable development of textile industry.Before solving this problem,it is necessary to study and analyze the influencing factors of polyester price fluctuation,and explore the linkage effect of polyester price fluctuation on upstream and downstream industrial chains.On the basis of reading a lot of literature,this paper finds that expectation theory has been paid more and more attention by scholars in the study of price fluctuation.From the perspective of expectation theory,it can well explain the impact of investors' subjective behavior on price in polyester price fluctuation.Based on this,this paper will study whether the influencing factors of polyester price volatility are affected by investors' expectations and whether the upstream and downstream industries have linkage effect when the price volatility is affected by investors' expectations.Under the guidance of expectation theory and from the perspective of investors,based on the relevant economic mathematical model,this paper takes the monthly data of 2013-2019 and the data of polyester price,PTA price and pure polyester yarn price of global textile network as samples,and analyzes the relationship between the different expectations(static expectation,extrapolation expectation,adaptability expectation)of investors and polyester price Based on the empirical analysis of the relationship,the linkage effect of PTA price in the upstream of polyester industrial chain and pure polyester yarn price in the downstream is tested according to the most important expectation of polyester price and the real polyester price.In the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of polyester market price,through the estimation of multiple regression model,the following conclusions are drawn: first,static expectation,extrapolation expectation and adaptability expectation have a significant impact on the price fluctuation of polyester;second,static expectation has the largest and significant impact on the price fluctuation of polyester in other expectations;third,expectation has a greater impact on the price fluctuation of polyester Finally,the cost factor,interest rate and exchange rate in the real value also have a significant impact on polyester price.DCC-GARCH model is used in the linkage effect test of polyester industrial chain.The test results show that: static expectation has no significant linkage effect on PTA price in the upstream of polyester industrial chain,but significant linkage effect on pure polyester yarn in the downstream;actual polyester price has significant linkage effect on PTA price in the upstream and pure polyester yarn price in the downstream of polyester industrial chain.