Research On Safety Risk Evaluation Of Assembled Building Construction Based On Fuzzy Set And Evidence Theory

The results of the seventh census show that the birth rate of newborns in China is further reduced,the aging is further aggravated,it is foreseeable that China’s reliance on its population base will become a thing of the past.China’s demographic dividend has become a thing of the past.However,the demand for population in the established construction industry is high,while the number of people of construction age is decreasing and society’s requirements for housing are becoming increasingly stringent.Therefore,under the current situation,assembled buildings are welcoming a new outlet for their development because of their advantages of environmental protection,energy saving,simple construction and high standardization,especially the severe form of the new crown epidemic has further highlighted the advantages of assembled buildings and become another propeller for the development of assembled buildings.However,it must be acknowledged that the overall construction method of assembled buildings is different from the traditional construction concept,which has become a system,and in some aspects is even very different.,so in the process of transformation of the construction industry production methods,there are inevitably construction safety hazards,the urgent need for scientific and effective management methods applied to the actual production,to escort the development of assembled buildings.Therefore,on the basis of a large number of scholars’ research results and relevant construction technical specifications,the results of field research are used as reference,this paper makes a preliminary identification of the potential risk factors in the process of assembled building construction through accident cause theory,taking the field investigation results as a reference.Then the PCA analysis method is used to screen the related construction safety risk factors,and the most representative construction safety risk factors are summarized,and then the evaluation index system is constructed.Then,based on the fuzzy set and evidence theory,a risk evaluation model of assembly building construction was established,and in order to further eliminate the subjectivity of expert scholars’ assignment process and the influence of extreme values on the data,the C-OWA operator was introduced to the data set;the affiliation function of the fuzzy set was adopted to quantitatively apply the evaluation of expert scholars,and the data results based on the affiliation function were used as the evidence parameters of DS,and finally the evaluation conclusions of different experts were further improved by amending the conflict coefficients to determine the risk safety level by re-weighting the data after the run.The model constructed in this paper was used to study the case of QD Vanke New Metropolis project.The results show that the model in this paper can objectively and practically evaluate the construction safety risk problems involved in assembled buildings,and the paper proposes measures to cope with construction safety risks based on the simulation results and the actual situation in order to generate application value and effectiveness.