Research On Bond Default Of Non-ferrous Metal Enterprises

Nonferrous metals are essential basic materials and strategic materials for national economic development.However,from 2015 to 2021,many nonferrous metal companies defaulted,and the industry credit risk erupted intensively,which attracted great attention of the market.Using the method of case study and model framework,this thesis first analyzes the characteristics and current situation of non-ferrous metal industry,combs out the number and main structure of industry default,and preliminarily summarizes the causes of industry default.On this basis,select the industry once known as the "first share of silver" in-depth analysis of Jingui Silver industry.First,introduce the basic situation of the company and review the whole process of bond default;Secondly,from the perspective of external factors and internal factors,this thesis expounds the causes of breach of contract;Then,Z-score Model and KMV model are used to test the company’s credit default probability,and the impact of default events on the company itself and stock price is analyzed;Finally,summarize the experience and lessons.It is found that Jingui Silver industry,which is located in the non-ferrous metal industry,is currently facing difficulties such as macroeconomic downturn,shortage of primary mineral resources,environmental pollution and so on.The company’s radical strategy,blind market expansion and fragile debt structure have brought huge cash flow gap to the company.Internal governance problems such as the occupation of major shareholders’ equity and imperfect information disclosure,on the one hand,further worsened the company’s financial situation,on the other hand,brought negative public opinion impact to the company,the rating dropped sharply,and corporate bonds defaulted under domestic and foreign troubles.Finally,the company’s shares plummeted,assets were frozen,lawsuits were entangled,the operation was unsustainable,and the process of investor claims was difficult.After bankruptcy and reorganization,it was transformed into a state-owned enterprise.Jingui Silver industry typically reflects the influencing factors of non-ferrous metal private enterprises’ breach of contract.At the macro level,economy and policies will affect the credit risk level of non-ferrous metals to a certain extent.At the micro level,the company’s own internal governance is the core reason for default,while the lack of information disclosure supervision and falsely high rating make the risk credit spread significantly wider.To deal with these problems,in addition to keeping the main business stable,strengthening internal governance and improving solvency,the government,external institutions and investors also need to make corresponding efforts to jointly create a good investment and financing environment.This thesis studies and summarizes the default events of Jingui Silver industry,complements the research perspective of taking the industry as the starting point in theory,and fills the defect of insufficient case study of bond default in non-ferrous metal industry;In a practical sense,using Z-score and KMV model for test and analysis,we hope to put forward targeted construction suggestions for the industry and timely warn the credit risk,which will help investors grasp the risk points,help relevant institutions to supervise more accurately and maintain the order of the financial market.