| Since the beginning of the industrial Revolution,the rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases,led by carbon dioxide,is one of the important causes of global warming.The main source of greenhouse gases,including carbon dioxide and methane,is the burning of fossil energy,such as coal and oil,and energy supply through energy burning is the pillar to promote economic development in almost all countries.Therefore,how to reduce greenhouse gas emission with economic development has attracted more and more attention from all countries in the world.Reform and opening up depend on the rapid development of China’s economy.However,China’s past development mode of high energy input has brought a series of prominent energy and environmental problems in the process of China’s industrialization.However,China has begun to attach great importance to the problems caused by greenhouse gases,and in 2009 it proposed a clear reduction target.In 2014,China made "coping with global climate change and green and low-carbon development" one of the main topics of its 13 th FiveYear Plan.These emission reduction targets fully reflect China’s responsibilities as a major country,and also set higher requirements for China’s carbon emission reduction.At present,China’s population development and population flow pattern has great potential for change,and the study and analysis of the impact of population factors on carbon emissions is of great practical significance for the formulation and guidance of policy.In September 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the concepts of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality",which conveyed China’s determination to environmental protection and made the "3060 Goal" become the goal and direction of China’s mid-and long-term low-carbon green economic development.As one of the first low-carbon demonstration provinces in China,Guangdong province is also the champion of net population inflow for many consecutive years.The study on the impact of population size and institutional factors on its carbon emissions is of important practical significance and guiding role for the realization of "3060 Target" in Guangdong Province.In this paper,the specific impacts of population on carbon emissions are quantitatively studied from different dimensions.In content,this paper firstly combed the domestic and international relevant research literature and theory,and then introduces the research scope of this article,the theoretical framework and the quantitative model,then using carbon dioxide emissions from 1997 to 2019 in Guangdong province,combined with the comprehensive analysis of population development,focus on the research of carbon dioxide emissions,and the change of population development in Guangdong province.Through the establishment of 5groups of STIRPAT model extension model,USES the quantitative analysis of time series data of the population size,industry,population size,population age structure,population urbanization level,population affected by education level,family banyan health scale,population census register seat,population wealth level of consumption and the impact of technological progress on the carbon emissions in Guangdong,The empirical analysis results show that from 1997 to 2019,the population size of the influence on carbon emissions is not structural factors such as population age structure on the influence of carbon emissions,as a result,different demographic factors on carbon emissions will produce different effect,this for the adjustment of population policy opened the subsequent operations and imagination of space.Through the empirical analysis of the model,it is found that different population dimensions have different mechanisms and mitigation methods on carbon emissions,which may promote or inhibit carbon emissions.Among them,the total population,the number of employed people in different industries,the proportion of people aged 15-60,the aging population,the number of urban population,the proportion of highly educated people,the ratio of 1 person per household,the education level of employed people and the population consumption level have a positive effect on carbon emissions.The number of natural population,the number of rural population,the proportion of people with a junior high school education,the proportion of families with more than 4 people per household,the proportion of people with a spouse,the proportion of local household registration and other variables have negative effects on carbon emissions.In terms of different population dimensions,the following conclusions can be drawn: First,although the size of the total population and the number of jobs in different industries have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions,the impact of the number of jobs in tertiary industry is much lower than that in secondary industry;Second,the weight of the proportion of working-age population has exceeded the weight of the total population.The influence weight of the proportion of old people is less than that of the total population and the proportion of working-age people.Natural population growth,that is,the number of babies born,has a dampening effect on carbon emissions;Third,the impact of urban and rural population on carbon emissions is opposite,and the degree is close,indicating that urbanization rate has a promoting effect on carbon emissions.Fourth,education level is similar to urban and rural structure,education level has the opposite effect on carbon emissions,the degree is similar,low education level has the inhibition effect on carbon emissions;Fifth,the educational level of the employed personnel has a promotion effect on carbon emissions,but the promotion effect of highly educated workers is less than that of low-educated workers;Sixth,the smaller the family size is,the more carbon emissions will be promoted,and the larger the family size is,the less carbon emissions will be inhibited.Seventh,both the proportion of local household registration and the proportion of having a spouse have significant negative effects on carbon emissions.Eighth,the impact of consumption level and technological progress in different models is roughly the same,high consumption level promotes the growth of carbon emissions,while scientific and technological progress inhibits the growth of carbon emissions.On the basis of the analysis and research,some policy suggestions are put forward for Guangdong province to achieve the goal of carbon peak: first,encourage the surplus of schoolage residents to reduce the burden of child-rearing;Second,optimize the population structure and properly control the total population;Third,strengthen population management and improve citizen information registration to further reduce the phenomenon of household separation;Fourth,appropriately guide residents to return to the traditional family model,encourage four generations under one roof;Fifth,to promote the importance of carbon peak carbon neutrality,and guide residents to live a low-carbon life;Sixth,upgrade low-carbon technologies and constantly optimize industrial institutions;Seventh,optimize the ratio of different energy exploitation and burning,and increase the proportion of clean energy burning. |
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