The Research On Carbon Emission Permit Price And Allowance In Chin

To deal with the global climate warming, “Kyoto Protocol” proposed the emission trade of carbon at first. Since Kyoto Protocol took effect officially in February 2005, the international carbon trading market has gained rapid development. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, China is also explicitly raised to establish a carbon emissions trading market gradually, and has started the transaction of the seven pilot carbon emissions trading markets on June 19, 2014. In 2014 the national development and Reform Commission has begun to plan to establish a unified national carbon emissions trading market, and the unified national carbon emissions trading market is scheduled to start in 2016. This paper makes an empirical research on the carbon emission permit price and carbon emission allowance, in order to provide a reference for the establishment of national carbon emissions trading market.At first, this paper used the transaction price data of carbon emission in Shenzhen trading market as a sample, and analyzed the relationship between carbon emission permit price and energy price by using VEC model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. It has been found that, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emission permit price, crude oil price, coal price and natural gas price. The impact from natural gas price and coal price has a stability negative effect on carbon emission permit price in the long term. The impact from crude oil price has a stability positive effect in the long term. The crude oil price has the best ability to predict the price of carbon emission permit, and the power will be enhanced. The coal price has weaker predictive ability than crude oil price. The predictive power of natural gas is very weak.Next, this paper has calculated the 30 province(municipalities) historical carbon emissions. And on this basis this paper respectively from the national level and the eastern, central and western regional level to analyze China’s provincial carbon emissions by use spatial panel data model. The results show that, from the national level, there is significant spatial autocorrelation and spillover effect in China’s provincial carbon emissions. From the regional level, the provincial carbon emissions in eastern and western region show the positive spatial autocorrelation, and in the central region exists negative spatial autocorrelation. The Per capita GDP, population scale and energy intensity has significant positive influence on the three regions carbon emissions, but the intensity of the impact on the three regions are different. The industrial structure has significant influence on carbon emissions in eastern region but not significant in central and western region. The energy consumption structure has significant influence on carbon emissions in central and western region but not significant in eastern region.Through the above analysis, we found that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emission permit price and energy price, and this relationship will have a constraint on the short-term changes in the price of carbon emission permit. This show that the carbon emission price will make dynamic adjustment with the change of energy price. In addition, the shortage of the energy marketization and the unreasonable structure of energy consumption make the natural gas price does not have a significant impact on the carbon emission price. We also found that there was significant spatial autocorrelation and regional difference in China’s provincial carbon emissions, and the factors effect on the regional carbon emissions are not the same. So, when we set provincial carbon emissions quota based on historical emissions, On the one hand we could see the provinces which have spatial correlation as a whole to make a total quota, and then assign that to the provinces of this region. On the other hand, we should consider the difference of the carbon emissions and the emission reduction space of different province to set a reasonable and fair carbon emissions quotas.