Spatial-temporal Pattern And Influencing Factors Of Land Use Carbon Emission In Northeast China

With the increasingly serious environmental problems caused by the greenhouse effect,controlling and reducing carbon emissions is one of the important measures to cope with global climate change and take a low-carbon sustainable development path.In the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly and in the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the Outline of the 2035 Vision,China has explicitly proposed to accelerate the development of a green and low-carbon economy,formulate an implementation plan for carbon emission peaking by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,which means that China is gradually entering the This means that China is gradually entering the period of "total emission reduction",which elevates the work on climate change to an unprecedented level.Some studies show that about 45% of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere come from fossil fuels and land use change,and land use change is second only to fossil combustion as one of the important sources of greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,it is of practical significance to investigate the influencing factors of land use carbon emissions and take relevant measures to reduce the national carbon emission reduction pressure and achieve green and low-carbon sustainable development.In this study,based on five periods of remote sensing data in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and2018 in three northeastern provinces,we extracted and analyzed the current situation of land use in three northeastern provinces in the past 18 years using GIS software,and then measured different carbon emissions in each region of three northeastern provinces in the past 18 years by referring to previous empirical coefficients and using the relevant carbon emission measurement methods in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.The spatial variation of land use carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces was analyzed using exploratory spatial data,and finally,the spatial differences of land use carbon emissions influencing factors in the three northeastern provinces from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed using a geographically weighted regression model,and targeted land use carbon emission reduction measures were proposed for the problems of land use carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)During 2000-2018,the overall land use structure of the three northeastern provinces changed significantly,among which forest land,grassland,and watershed all decreased to different degrees except for arable land,construction land,and unused land;from the land use transfer matrix,a total of 165,363.13 km2 of land in the three northeastern provinces were mutually transformed during 2000-2018,among which the area of forest land transferred out the largest,followed by arable land,grassland,unutilized land,and water,and the smallest area transferred is construction land;arable land and forest land were interconverted,grassland was mainly shifted to forest land and unutilized land,and unutilized land was mainly transformed into arable land through land use improvement,etc.,while the main source of construction land was arable land.(2)The land use carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces from 2000 to 2018 showed a trend of increasing year by year,from 297,303,700 t in 2000 to 390,274,300 t in 2018,with a growth rate of 31%.Spatially high and moderate carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the capital cities of the three northeastern provinces;during the study period,land use carbon uptake in the three northeastern provinces showed a decreasing trend,from 230,800,000 t in 2000 to 222,100,000 t in 2018,with a decrease rate of 4%,spatially,the high value areas of carbon uptake are mainly concentrated in the Daxinganling,Changbai Mountain and other mountainous and woodland resource-rich areas;the spatial and temporal variation of net carbon emissions from land use in the three northeastern provinces from 2000 to 2018 is large,and the net carbon emissions from land use in the three northeastern provinces are increasing year by year,which is basically consistent with the changes in carbon emissions.Carbon uptake cannot offset carbon emissions,resulting in an increase of 92,779,200 t in net land use carbon emissions from 2000,with a growth rate of 31.3%.Spatially,the high value areas of net land use carbon emission in the three northeastern provinces are mainly concentrated in Harbin,Qiqihar,Shenyang and Dalian,and the low value areas are mainly concentrated in areas with high carbon absorption such as Daxinganling and Changbai Mountain.(3)From the regional spatial relationship of net land use carbon emissions,the Moran’s I index of net land use carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces from 2000 to 2018 shows a trend of increasing and then decreasing,indicating that there is a significant global positive spatial correlation and the overall difference in carbon emissions among regions is gradually widening;from the local correlation(cold hot spot analysis),the high carbon areas In terms of local correlation(cold hotspot analysis),the high-carbon areas are mainly concentrated in Fuxin,Jinzhou,Anshan,Yingkou and Dalian in Liaoning Province,while the low-carbon areas are mainly concentrated in Hegang,Shuangyashan,Jixi and Jiamusi in Heilongjiang Province and Baishan and Tonghua in Jilin Province.(4)The influencing factors of land use carbon emission in the three northeastern provinces are land use intensity > industrial structure > total population in descending order.The coefficients of the total population factor vary less among neighboring cities,and the influence on land use carbon emissions has obvious spatial dependence.The coefficient range of each year of the study period shows an increasing trend,indicating that the influence of the total population factor is gradually increasing.Industrial structure as a whole has a large regional variation in coefficients,with some areas changing from positive to negative values,indicating that the three northeastern provinces,especially Liaoning Province,are continuously adjusting their industrial structure in recent years,with the proportion of secondary industries decreasing,and giving full play to the advantages of tertiary industries in energy conservation and emission reduction.Land use intensity has the greatest impact on land use carbon emissions relative to total population and industrial structure,and the spatial changes are most obvious,with the overall coefficient range showing a decreasing trend,with spatially high value areas showing first decreasing and then increasing,and low value areas shrinking,with obvious geographical differences.