Risk Analysis Of Subway Operation Safety Based On Bayesian Network And Cloud Model

With the continuous acceleration of the process of social development,subways have become an upsurge in the construction of major cities in China.However,due to the obvious equipment complexity and the special operating environment of the subway project,once a subway safety operation accident occurs,it will cause inestimable consequences.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to carry out analysis and research on subway operation safety risks.Using scientific and effective analysis methods to accurately identify the causes of safety risks,it is possible to timely evaluate subway operation safety risks and propose preventive control solutions,which is of great significance to effectively guarantee subway safe operation.This paper summarizes the research results related to subway operation safety risks in the domestic and foreign academic circles and the Bayesian network analysis methods introduced and the cloud model.Secondly,the basis of Bayesian network security risk modeling and evaluation is explained and analyzed,and the static and dynamic Bayesian basic theory is pointed out.The FT / ET-based security risk modeling and evaluation method is used as the research basis for this paper.Giving a summary.On this basis,analyze the subway operation safety risks,and build an index system of influencing factors,including a comprehensive and systematic subway operation safety risk assessment indicator system from human,machine,environment,and management.Based on the Bayesian network subway operation safety risk assessment modeling,based on the interpretation structure model,the relationship between the factors affecting safety risks is explained,and combined with the fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network structure,it is found that fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network construction Modular difficulty is effectively reduced.The fuzzy set theory is introduced to transform natural language variables proposed by experts,and the obtained probability information is input into the Bayesian network to complete the subway operation safety risk assessment.Finally,combined with empirical analysis,taking Shanghai Metro traffic as an example,analyzing the operational safety risk assessment level,it was found that driving organization,personnel,vehicle systems,and communication signal systems,etc.,will affect the safe operation of the subway.The actual operation of the subway is compared with the risk assessment results of the empirical laboratory in this paper,which confirms the scientific applicability of the method based on Bayesian network security risk of subway operation.