Research On Risk Assessment And Control Of Geothermal Well Exploration Project

Drilling engineering is the key link of geothermal exploration and development project.Due to different geological environment,the difficulty of geothermal exploration engineering is different.There are a lot of uncertainties in the exploration of underground environment,and the overall technical maturity and adaptability of current geothermal exploration also need to be continuously improved based on the geological environment and current technology.However,the risk of drilling engineering is higher than that of other engineering,so it is necessary to study its risk assessment and control.The topic of this thesis is based on this background to carry out the project risk management research of actual engineering.Taking the LR2 geothermal well exploration project in Dengkou County as the research object,this thesis studies its risk assessment and control.The research results have certain guiding significance for the risk assessment,control research and management of geothermal exploration engineering projects.This thesis first introduces the research background,significance,geothermal exploration technology and drilling project risk management research status,and puts forward the research methods and content;Secondly,the definition of project risk management,geothermal exploration technology and project risk management methods are elaborated,and the expert investigation method,principal component analysis method,analytic hierarchy process and D-S evidence theory method are introduced in this thesis.Thirdly,the risk factors of Deng kou LR2 geothermal well exploration project are analyzed from the aspects of environment,method,equipment and personnel,and the risk consequence severity index of Deng kou LR2 geothermal well exploration project is analyzed from the five aspects of quality,cost,schedule,safety and environment.Then,on the basis of summarizing the risk management and control of drilling engineering projects in geothermal exploration at home and abroad,aiming at the particularity of geothermal exploration construction,the principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of multiple index factors,and the evaluation index system is established from the two aspects of risk causes and consequences severity.Ahp is used to determine the weight of a single index in the whole project.Establish the risk evaluation index system,combined with the D-S evidence theory multi-level evaluation model,analyze and evaluate the project effect.According to the analysis results,the risk of "consequence severity risk" is higher than that of "genetic risk" in the first-level index dimension of the drilling project in this geothermal exploration.In the first-level index dimension "consequence severity risk",the support degree of the second-level index dimension "cost risk" is 62.3%,so it should be paid attention to as the risk with the highest proportion.In the "cost risk","accident loss" is the most critical factor,need to be paid enough attention to,in addition to "schedule risk" and "safety risk",the construction unit should also be appropriate to close.Finally,this thesis analyzes the risk of Deng kou LR2 geothermal exploration project and the measures and methods to deal with the risk from the aspects of environment,method,personnel and equipment,combined with the characteristics of the geothermal exploration project in Deng kou County.Aiming at the uniqueness of the drilling project in geothermal exploration,Weighted scoring method and fuzzy relative evaluation method are used to analyze the control effect,and the effectiveness of the overall evaluation is inferred.Through these measures,we hope to improve the risk management ability of geothermal exploration drilling projects,so as to promote the stable and high-quality development of the industry,and provide a model for other projects.