Research On Influencing Factors Of Beijing Carbon Emission Trading Price Based On VEC Model

China actively promotes green development,integrates low-carbon economy into national strategic development,and promises to strive to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.Carbon emission trading plays an important role in achieving the goal of "double carbon".The development of Beijing carbon emission trading market is relatively perfect.Studying the influencing factors of Beijing carbon emission trading price has broad theoretical and practical significance.Based on this,this paper makes a theoretical and Empirical Study on the factors affecting the trading price of carbon emission rights in the pilot of carbon emission trading in Beijing.Firstly,this paper sorts out the relevant literature on the factors affecting the price of carbon emission trading at home and abroad in recent years.At the same time,based on the external effect theory,property right theory,green finance theory and carbon emission trading theory,this paper explores four kinds of factors affecting the price of carbon emission trading in Beijing,which are macroeconomic factors,energy price factors,climate and environment factors and external spillover factors.Secondly,the indicators and data of empirical variables are determined,in which the BK0150 index and the latest EUA price are creatively selected as one of the indicators to measure macroeconomic factors and external spillover factors respectively,and the stability and cointegration of each variable are tested;Determine the optimal lag order;Granger test was used to analyze the causal relationship of variables in statistical sense;Using vector error correction(VEC)model for empirical analysis;The impulse response function is used to understand the relationship between various factors and carbon price changes,and the influence effects of various factors are compared through variance decomposition.Finally,it is concluded that macroeconomic and energy price factors,especially coal price,are the main factors affecting Beijing’s carbon emission trading price,followed by climate environment and external spillover factors.Finally,based on the above influencing factors,four suggestions are put forward to comprehensively promote the development of Beijing’s capital market,actively use relevant derivative trading instruments,increase clean energy support and improve the construction of Beijing’s carbon market mechanism,so as to provide useful references for Beijing’s carbon pricing,the construction of Beijing and even China carbon market system and mechanism,and the development of Beijing enterprises.