Analysis Of The Influence Factors Of Carbon Emission Trading Price In China Based On GMM Model

In November 2020,China's relevant departments jointly issued the "report on climate change(2020)".The report points out that in order to alleviate the global climate problems and reduce the greenhouse gas effect,the emission reduction target in the international market has gradually shifted to zero emission planning.As a developing country with the largest regional population and the second largest economic aggregate in the world,China is currently the largest main body of pollutant emissions in the world,so it is obliged to complete the task of emission control and reduction.China has been gradually increasing the deployment of relevant policies and measures.Since 2011,China has launched carbon emission pilot projects in eight regions,including Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,The carbon emission trading market has been established;By 2020,China will become the second largest carbon emission trading market in the world in terms of quota trading volume;In the previous fourth session of the 13 th National People's Congress on March 5,2021,Premier Li Keqiang specially pointed out that "doing a good job of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" is the key task of China's government work in 2021,and proposed that "we should pay close attention to the formulation of carbon peaking plan before 2030,encourage individual regions to take the lead in peaking" and "accelerate the construction of carbon emission trading market,Improve and formulate a dual control system to optimize the use of energy resources " However,the price of carbon emission rights has great volatility and complexity.At the same time,China lacks the pricing initiative,and there are still many problems to be solved.Therefore,this paper will take this opportunity to study the influencing factors and transmission mechanism of China's carbon emission right price,in order to promote the healthy development of China's carbon emission right market and help achieve the goal of China's carbon emission peak,which will also enhance China's voice and ability to implement the global climate governance system.This paper deeply studies the direct influence of various factors on the market price of carbon emission rights trading from two aspects of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.Firstly,this paper sorts out and comprehensively reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad,finds the problems,disputes and gaps in the research,and leads to the research ideas and direction of this paper,In the aspect of theoretical research,based on the research of China's related economics,finance and other professional fields,combined with the current situation of carbon emission trading market in China's pilot cities,this paper analyzes the influence and mechanism of four main factors on the market price of carbon emission rights,namely energy price,output and environmental factors,This paper selects eight urban carbon emission trading sites as the market trading pilot,and makes an empirical analysis on the market price by using GMM model based on the monthly statistical data from January 2017 to November 2020.It selects the commodity fuel price index,China's coal price deviation index,air quality index,Shibor,Hushen300 index and raw coal output as the representatives of the four influencing factors,It is found that,in terms of energy price,the international coal price is negatively correlated with the empirical results of China's carbon emission price,and the core object of international energy price is the change of energy resource use;The domestic coal price fluctuation is positively correlated with the empirical results of China's carbon emission price,which is related to China's economic regulation and strong dependence on coal energy;In terms of economic factors,carbon emission is affected by the cost and production scale of enterprises,which is positively correlated with the price of carbon emission rights in China;In terms of environmental factors,air quality index has a direct impact on the demand for carbon emission right,and then on the price,which is positively correlated with the price of carbon emission right;In terms of output,raw coal production is affected by the supply and demand of energy production market and the government's macro-control measures,and then directly and indirectly affect carbon emissions.The conclusion is that raw coal production is inversely proportional to the price of carbon emission rights,and the reason is that China's raw coal production is greatly affected by the national macro-control.Finally,after the empirical analysis,combined with the development process of China's carbon emission market and the specific national conditions,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the stable development of China's carbon financial market.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the selection of variables and indicators,as well as the use of empirical methods.For the first time,the commodity fuel price index and China's coal price deviation index are set as explanatory variables to study the impact of energy price on China's carbon emission trading price.The less studied raw coal production is used as explanatory variables,and the less used GMM model in relevant literature is used to analyze the influencing factors of China's carbon emission trading price,It can provide reference for building a national carbon emission market,promote the development of China's carbon financial market,and help China achieve the action goal of reaching the peak of carbon emission by 2030.