| Energy is an essential resource for human life.In recent years,the continuous development of society has consumed a large amount of energy,making the problem of insufficient energy consumption in China prominent.It has become increasingly urgent to accelerate the transformation of China’s energy consumption structure,which will affect the changes in various energy consumption.How to accurately analyze and forecast China’s energy consumption under limited data conditions is of great practical significance.China’s "coal-rich,oil-poor,gas-poor" energy situation means that coal is China’s main energy source,and this thesis analyzes coal and natural gas on this basis.In this thesis,a grey model is constructed to study the amount of coal available for regional consumption(referred to as coal availability),the amount of natural gas available for regional consumption(referred to as natural gas availability),and the residential enduse energy consumption(referred to as residential energy consumption)in China.First,the fractional-order cumulative generation operator and the damped cumulative generation operator are used to improve the cumulative approach of the traditional grey Lotka-Volterra model,and the fractional-order cumulative grey Lotka-Volterra model and the damped cumulative grey Lotka-Volterra model are constructed.The fractionalorder cumulative grey Lotka-Volterra model and the damped cumulative grey LotkaVolterra model are then verified to have good prediction accuracy by taking cases from different fields.The grey Lotka-Volterra model,fractional-order cumulative grey LotkaVolterra model and damped cumulative grey Lotka-Volterra model are used to analyze and forecast coal availability,natural gas availability and residential energy consumption in China.Finally,by comparing the fitting errors of the models,the better model is selected for parameter analysis and data forecasting,and the relationships and trends of China’s coal availability and natural gas availability,and the relationships and trends of China’s residential energy consumption can be obtained.According to the results of the analysis,it is found that the relationship between the amount of coal available and the amount of natural gas available in most regions of China currently shows a substitution relationship,with the amount of coal available showing a gradually decreasing trend and the amount of natural gas available showing a gradually increasing trend.The analysis of China’s residential energy consumption also shows that the relationship between total residential coal and LPG consumption and natural gas consumption is currently substitution in most regions,with residential coal and LPG consumption showing a gradual downward trend and residential natural gas consumption showing a gradual upward trend.Overall,there is currently no good and stable coordination between coal and natural gas in China. |
