Research On Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment And Response Strategies In Shandong Province

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,climate change has exacerbated extreme events such as warming and drought,which has left the Asian region with severe shortages of food and water resources.China is a largely agricultural country in Asia,and Shandong Province is an important grain production base in China,with the highest agricultural GDP and arable land rate in China.Due to the location of Shandong Province in a monsoon climate zone,the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation is uneven.Moreover,there are factors such as the surface and greenhouse effects,which have led to an increase in the extent and frequency of drought disasters in Shandong Province.Agricultural drought disaster risk can be reduced through scientific and effective risk assessment efforts and response strategies and thus ensure food security in China.In this paper,we mainly study agricultural drought disaster risk identification,assessment,and response in Shandong Province.First,the risk factors to be identified are selected through literature and questionnaires.The degree of drought hazard to food is quantified through a Copula-Bayes conditional probability model,which leads to the construction of agricultural vulnerability indicators.Secondly,the risk factor identification model based on "risk-loss" is proposed,and this model and the four elements of natural disaster risk theory are used to construct the risk assessment indicators system.Moreover,the sensitivity of the indicators is analyzed based on the WGA operator.Thirdly,the perennial state of the risk is assessed by the multi-year mean of the indicator,and the uncertainty of the risk is described by the variance of the change in risk level.Moreover,Arc GIS software is used to visualize the data.Finally,the corresponding response strategies are proposed based on the risk identification and assessment information,combined with the questionnaire survey and expert interviews.The research results show that:(1)Precipitation in Shandong Province shows a slightly increasing trend,temperature shows a significantly increasing trend since 1988,and annual dry and wet conditions show cyclical changes.Grain crops in Shandong Province are correlated with the dry and wet conditions in January,February,and August-October each year,and grain losses due to drought have shown a decreasing trend since 2012,decreasing by about 63,300 tons per year.(2)Thirteen risk factors of the risk assessment indicators system are identified.Five of them are benefit-based factors: drought duration,drought severity,drought peak,crop sown area,and rural population.Eight of them are cost-based factors: annual dry and wet status,food crop yield,food crop production value,agricultural plastic film use,rural household per capita disposable income,effective agricultural irrigation area per hectare,road network density,and total agricultural machinery power per hectare.(3)The areas with a high risk of agricultural drought disasters in Shandong Province during 2017-2020 are located in Heze City,and Liaocheng has a high degree of uncertainty about the risk.The areas with high hazards of disaster-causing factors are mainly located in the southwestern and northern parts of Shandong Province,and the areas with high agricultural exposure are mainly located in the southern part of Shandong Province.Agricultural vulnerable areas are mainly concentrated in the northern part of Shandong Province,and high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity are mainly located in the northeastern part of Shandong Province.Among the assessment indicators,the indicators of agricultural plastic film use and road density have a high sensitivity and a high degree of influence on the overall risk.(4)For areas with high hazards of disaster-causing factors,we should strengthen disaster monitoring and early warning,and build a drought disaster emergency preparedness mechanism,research and judgment,and information reporting mechanism.For areas with high exposure to agriculture,we should develop digital agriculture and water-saving agriculture to enhance the drought resistance of agriculture.For areas where agriculture is vulnerable to damage,agricultural insurance should be promoted and emergency platforms for drought disasters should be improved.Enhance disaster prevention capabilities,build water conservancy projects,and improve post-disaster recovery and compensation mechanisms.The research results provide new ways to identify disaster risk factors and help rationalize the planning of agricultural production structures in Shandong Province.It facilitates the determination of drought engineering scale and drought plan response level and mitigates the risk of agricultural drought disasters in Shandong Province.