| With the growing popularity of green and low-carbon concepts and the development of strategic emerging industries such as electric vehicles,the global consumption of cobalt is rapidly increasing.As an emerging mineral with strategic value,cobalt plays a crucial role in fields such as battery materials,alloys,and magnetic materials.China,as the world’s largest consumer of cobalt,has scarce cobalt reserves and low production,needing to import a large amount of cobalt resources each year,and faces significant supply pressure.It is necessary to accurately grasp the development trend and basic characteristics of cobalt resource material flow in the cobalt industry chain to ensure the stability and security of the domestic cobalt industry chain.This study combines industry chain theory to propose a specific cobalt industry chain material flow research framework and analysis method,and applies the life cycle theory to measure various links of cobalt production,consumption,and recycling in the industry chain to reveal its development characteristics.The aim is to improve the utilization rate of cobalt resources in China’s related industries and provide suggestions for building a stable and secure supply system.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)China is a major producer of refined cobalt,with cobalt production mainly used for domestic consumption.In recent years,the amount of cobalt recovered has exceeded the amount lost.China’s total imports of cobalt ore and cobalt wet intermediate products account for 96.7% of the total amount of cobalt raw materials.China produced 158600 tons of cobalt chloride,accounting for 25.6% of the total refined cobalt production during 2017-2021,and produced 189000 tons of cobalt sulfate,accounting for 30.5% of the total refined cobalt production.However,China lost 15845 tons of cobalt in the material flow of cobalt resources,with the most cobalt lost in the refining stage,totaling 11683 tons,accounting for 73.73% of the total loss.the total recovery amount of terminal products over five years was 66000 tons.In terms of consumption,China’s cobalt consumption was 394000 tons,with domestic consumption accounting for 51% of the cobalt products produced,and exports accounting for 49%.(2)Consumer batteries are the main consumption field of cobalt in China.From2017 to 2021,cobalt was mainly used in consumer batteries,cemented carbides,high-temperature alloys,ceramic glasses,and samarium-cobalt magnetic materials,with these five applications accounting for 97% of the total cobalt consumption during2017-2021.In particular,with the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle industry,batteries and high-temperature alloy industries have become the two most important consumption fields of cobalt.The proportion of cobalt consumption in the new energy vehicle sector increased from 13% in 2017 to 30% in 2021.(3)China’s cobalt industry faces significant supply and demand contradictions.In the upstream link of cobalt concentrate and hydrometallurgical intermediate products,China faces a severe shortage,while in the downstream link of refined cobalt and lithium batteries,China has a strong advantage.As the world’s largest cobalt refining and consuming country,China needs to import a large amount of cobalt raw materials every year,with imports being overly concentrated and heavily dependent on the Democratic Republic of Congo.If the DRC experiences political turmoil or introduces resource export restriction policies,China’s cobalt resources will face a severe risk of supply interruption,impacting the development of the downstream industry.Furthermore,China must strengthen the diversification of import sources to reduce potential risks caused by restrictions from other countries.(4)The cobalt metal recycling potential of new energy vehicle power batteries is significant in various scenarios,especially in the high scenario,where the recycling potential exceeds 10000 tons.This indicates that as the new energy vehicle industry develops,the demand for cobalt will continue to increase,and the recycling of secondary resources in used power batteries will become increasingly important.The growth in the recycling volume of consumer batteries mainly comes from mobile phones,laptops,and tablets.The cobalt scrap volume and recycling potential of these products remain relatively stable,possibly because they are mainstream consumer electronics products with relatively stable demand,and the cobalt content in these products is gradually decreasing with the continuous development of advanced technology.In contrast,the demand for digital cameras continues to decline,so their cobalt scrap volume and recycling potential are also decreasing.In the future,it is expected that cobalt consumption in high-temperature alloys and cemented carbides will continue to rise,promoting a relatively stable growth trend in cobalt recycling potential.Overall,the recycling potential of consumer batteries still has room for growth in the future,but the growth rate may be affected by market demand.To promote the sustainable development of China’s cobalt industry chain,the following suggestions are proposed: Strengthen the exploration and development of cobalt mineral resources,improve the reserve and management of cobalt resources,and enhance the efficiency and sustainability of resource development;accelerate the layout of overseas markets and expand the international market share of cobalt;optimize the import and export trade structure,and strengthen the diversification of import sources;enhance the utilization of secondary cobalt resources to reduce dependence on raw materials;strengthen the research and promotion of cobalt substitutes;strengthen the collaborative development between various links in the cobalt industry chain,promote technological innovation and talent cultivation,and improve the added value and brand premium capabilities of China’s cobalt products. |
