| With the continuous development of Internet communication technology,online video is growing rapidly,and platform users are increasing day by day.For all video industries,only video platforms with high-quality content can gain a foothold in the fiercely competitive market.In the era of Internet media,understanding the factors affecting the communication effect of online video websites will help increase the user traffic of video websites and increase the stickiness of website users; The mechanism is adjusted to increase popularity,and it can help individuals increase traffic or companies generate income.In this thesis,by collecting data related to online video on the Bilibili platform,firstly,a series of empirical analyzes are carried out on the relevant characteristic variables of online video communication effects,from video creators(number of fans,number of followers),audience groups(user satisfaction,user Participation)and video characteristics(video duration,video release time)three dimensions to study the influencing factors of online video communication effect.Secondly,taking the video playback volume as the popularity index,by analyzing the actual data of Bilibili’s network video popularity,according to the actual situation,combined with the three models of multivariate nonlinear model,Bass model,and non-homogeneous Poisson process,Viewership ratings are regarded as an important parameter of video diffusion,and the audience ratings are simulated by using logic function and delay S-type distribution.Then,on this basis,linear and quadratic dynamic Internet market scale models are respectively established.Finally,the improved model is used to fit the Bilibili network video playback volume,the fitting results are compared with the actual results,and the rationality of the model is analyzed and compared according to various evaluation indicators.The research results of this thesis show that the number of fans of video creators,user participation,and user satisfaction positively affect the effect of online video communication; video duration negatively affects the effect of online video communication; It plays a regulatory role,and at the same time,different video release time periods will also lead to differences in video transmission effects.Second,the rating function combined with the dynamic Internet market size model has a better fitting effect on online video popularity than other models with fixed parameters. |