Study On Decision And Effect Of Adaptive Behavior Of Grain Growers In Groundwater Overexploitation Area Under Meteorological Drought

In recent years,the climate has become warmer and drier,and the frequent meteorological droughts have increased the vulnerability of grain production.Groundwater has become the main source of grain irrigation.However,with the advancement of urbanization and industrialization,the phenomenon of non-agricultural use of water for food is intensified,and the phenomenon of groundwater overexploitation is serious.Groundwater overexploitation leads to a series of ecological and environmental problems,such as water quality deterioration,ecosystem degradation,ground subsidence,continuous expansion of groundwater funnel area,and sea water intrusion,which seriously threatens food production,economy and ecological security.Since the 18 th National Congress of the CPC,the state has repeatedly made important instructions to ensure water security.Shandong province,one of China’s major grain producing areas,is located in the North China Plain,where the probability of severe drought in the future has increased.There are 12 cities in Shandong Province where groundwater is overdrawn.Under the reality of spatial mismatch between grain production and water resources,agricultural water resources are under great pressure.Farmers are micro subjects of grain production and direct performers and beneficiaries of groundwater control policies.This paper,based on the research data of406 samples of farmers in groundwater overexploitation areas of Shandong Province,firstly established a theoretical framework of "adaptive behaviors-behavioral intensities-behavioral effects" by identifying the relationship among meteorological drought,groundwater overexploitation and food production and clarify the dynamic process of adaptive behavior of grain growers.Secondly,the Heckman model was used to analyze the factors influencing the decision-making behavior and intensity of agricultural planting management measures and water-saving technical measures.The Endogenous Switching Regression model was used to measure the income effect of management measures and water-saving technical measures.Finally,put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The results are as follows:(1)The Heckman model was used to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behavior.Climate drought and groundwater overexploitation do not have a direct significant impact on farmers’ adoption of planting management measures,but have a significant impact on whether farmers adopt water-saving technical measures.In the areas with severe meteorological drought and deep groundwater overexploitation,the pressure of irrigation water increases,and farmers tend to adopt planting management measures to ensure stable grain production.In areas where the impact of meteorological drought is less and the use of well water for irrigation is less,farmers may be more inclined to adopt water-saving technical measures to relieve water pressure.(2)The endogenous transformation model was used to analyze the income effect of farmers’ adaptive behavior.Planting management measures could increase the net agriculture income,but water-saving technology measures could not increase the agriculture net income.Under the counterfactual hypothesis,if farmers who actually adopt planting management measures do not adopt planting management measures,the total net income of wheat and corn per unit area will be reduced by 207.92 yuan.If the farmers who do not actually adopt planting management measures adopt planting management measures,the total net income of wheat and corn per unit area will be increased by 599.04 yuan.(3)In order to increase the income of farmers and protect groundwater resources,it is necessary to enhance farmers’ sensitivity to climate change and awareness of groundwater resource protection,reduce the technical barriers and costs for farmers to adopt adaptive measures,precisely formulate schemes for the treatment of shallow and deep groundwater overexploitation areas,and improve social services for agricultural planting management measures and water-saving technical measures.