Energy System Planning Research In Hunan Province Based On EnergyPLAN Model And Multi-index Decision-making

With the successive proposals of national carbon neutrality and carbon peaking policies,Hunan Province plans to first achieve the carbon peaking goal in 2030.In order to promote the structural reform of energy supply side,Hunan Province actively improves renewable energy penetration.However,problems such as inadequate electricity supply and renewable energy excessive power generation have a negative impact on industrial production and residents daily life.In order to promote the stable development of energy systems,this study will develop from the three aspects of system simulation,optimization computing,scheme selection and analysis,to research the year-on-year energy construction target planning during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period in Hunan Province.This paper first based on the Energy PLAN model for detailed simulation calculations of 2020 Hunan Province energy system,and to determine the direction of energy structure reform.Then constructs energy development models during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period in Hunan Province,providing tool foundation for energy structure and performance accumulation effects research.Based on the development status of energy industry and geographical conditions in Hunan Province,wind power,photovoltaic,energy storage and coal power is selected as decision variables.Coupled NSGA-III algorithm with development models,calculated a number of alternative that maintain relatively optimal between costs,carbon emissions,and excessive power generation.Finally,this study is based on the hierarchical analysis and CRITIC method,constructs three subjective development scenarios of economic orientation,environmental orientation,technology-oriented,and data-driven objective scenarios by analyze the data features of alternative.Coupling the above scenarios with GRA-TOPSIS sorting method,and constructed the comprehensive energy assessment model for scheme selection.By analyzing the installed capacity trend and performance of the scheme under different orientations,the research concludes:(1)When the cumulative cost during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period is less than 205 billion yuan,the effect of cost reduction on improving the overall economic benefits is very obvious;(2)The carbon emission intensity should not be reduced to below 0.533.If it continues to decrease,the effect of improving environmental benefits will be very weak,and will bring extremely high construction pressure and grid balance pressure;(3)To improve the power consumption capacity,the installation plan of coal power and energy storage should not be too advanced to avoid falling into a low cost and environmental benefit;(4)The average penetration rate of renewable energy is maintained at about 54.3%,which will bring the most suitable construction pressure;(5)The installed capacity of energy storage in the first year should not be increased to more than 1250 MW.A large number of idle energy storage facilities will cause a decline in economic benefits.This study compares the performance of different representative schemes,and determine to take data-driven scenarios as the final scheme.While balancing carbon emissions and cost performance,it also takes into account the reduction of power abandonment rate and the possibility of power gap.In addition,this scheme maintains appropriate construction pressure and grid balance,providing an effective reference for energy system planning in Hunan Province during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.