A Study On The Development Structure Optimization Of Costal Renewable Energy Based On Factor Analysis

In 2012, China’s consumption of energy has exceeded the United States and became the world’s largest energy consumer; however, in such a large amount of energy consumption, more than 70% is coal consumption, and 90% of the total consumption is fossil energy consumption. Such energy structure brought about serious environmental problems and retarded the sustainable development of environment. In recent years, China is planning to adjust the energy structure and the government promotes the development of renewable energy in order to optimize the energy development strategy. Coastal areas is relatively more developed than inner areas while they demand for more energy; however, the traditional energy is scarce and the environment can hardly afford more pollution. Coastal areas are abounded in wind energy, tidal energy and other coastal renewable energies. A reasonable development of coastal renewable energy can not only optimize the energy supply structure, but also relieve the pressure of regional environmental pollutions and improve the energy structure in coastal areas. Based on the planning problems of renewable energy structure in coastal areas, this paper discusses the evaluated index system of coastal renewable energy structure optimization, on which a study of comprehensive evaluation of coastal renewable energy and an optimized model of structure is built. This paper takes Dalian as an example, and the detailed discussion is listed as followings:First, this paper builds up an index system. After analyzing the characteristics of different coastal renewable energies, this paper builds up an index system of coastal renewable energy. This system includes five aspects:energy, economy, technique, environment and safety, which includes the period of development and utilization, energy conversion efficiency, the quantity of energy companies, the cost, the average salary, the index of ecological efficiency, the carbon emission, the index of the danger of development and the domination index of development.Second, this paper makes a comprehensive research. According to the definition of index evaluation, this paper searches for the numbers of index including tidal energy, tidal power, costal wind, biomass energy and solar energy in Dalian in 2010,2014 and 2020. After standardizing the numbers, this paper applies factor analysis to the data and four comprehensive factors (economical factor, technical factor, environmental factor and safe factor) and correspondent scores of each factor are gained. The variance contribution rate of each factor is more than 75%, which can reflect most of the information. Then, this paper evaluates coastal renewable energy structure in Dalian in 2014 and 2020 through these factors and the index observations. The priorities of energy development and utilization are drawn under consideration of each factor in a separate situation. Besides, these scores of the factors can offer help to the structure of optimization.Furthermore, this paper provides a model of structure optimization. Based on the index system and scores of each factor, the multi-objective optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure is established based on a goal of maximal benefit with the best proportion of economy, carbon emissions and development. The constraint conditions comprise each comprehensive factor and important indexes in different aspects. In this model, each objective function and constraint condition has a controllable coefficient which can help decision makers to explore their subjective initiatives.Finally, this paper takes Dalian as an example. This paper uses CPLEX software to solve problems and optimizes the coastal renewable energy structure of Dalian in 2020 with the model, which shows the efficiency of the model. Compared with the models which are made by predecessors, this model is more advanced. At last, this model optimizes the proportion of different energy structures and the capacity of energy development in 2020, Dalian through following three circumstances:taking economic benefits as the primary goal, taking environmental benefits as the primary goal and taking comprehensive benefits as the primary goal, and the model shows its validity. The optimized energy structure can be taken as a reference when policies are made on the development and utilization of Dalian’s coastal renewable energy.