| In 2021,China introduced "dual circulation policy" to promote economic development from "international circulation driving domestic circulation" to "domestic systemic circulation oriented,domestic and international double circulation promoting each other",and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern that focuses on domestic trade and promotes the coordinated development of domestic trade and foreign trade.Shandong Province is connected to the mainland internally and the Bohai Sea externally,which has a unique advantage in the development of a dual circular economy.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the level of economic development and influencing factors in Shandong Province,in order to promote high-quality development of domestic and foreign trade in Shandong Province.This article uses different analytical methods to combine the development level of domestic trade and foreign trade to draw conclusions and policy recommendations related to the regional economic development of Shandong Province.Firstly,according to the global and local Moran’s I index,Lisa’s significance map,cluster map and spatial quartile map and other methods,it is determined that each city in Shandong Province has a spatial correlation on the level of intraregional trade development.Finally,through the panel data of 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2021,a Spatial Durbin model(SDM)with double fixed effects is established and the level of intraregional trade development in Shandong Province and its influencing factors are analyzed.Then,based on the foreign trade panel data of 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2021,the Principal Component Analysis method is used to construct the evaluation table of the foreign trade development level of each city in Shandong Province and analyze its influencing factors.Finally,construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the regional economy of Shandong Province,and further establish a multiple regression model to explore the relationship between domestic trade and foreign trade in Shandong Province.Based on the above analysis,main conclusions of this article are as follows:Firstly,the development of domestic trade in various cities in Shandong Province is uneven,and its spatial autocorrelation is gradually increasing;Secondly,The spillover and siphon effects of domestic trade in Shandong Province are significant,and cities with higher levels of development gather spatially and they are surrounded by cities with lower levels of development;Thirdly,in recent years,the development level of foreign trade in most cities in Shandong has shown an overall downward trend.The three cities along the eastern coast are in a leading position,while the level of foreign trade in cities in the central,western,and central southern regions is generally low.Jinan,as the provincial capital city,is also not optimistic;Fourthly,the rapid development of domestic trade in Shandong Province has to some extent suppressed the development of foreign trade in Shandong Province.In order to better respond to the national policy of dual circulation,Shandong Province should allocate resources reasonably to prevent cities with high levels of regional trade development from absorbing production factors from surrounding cities.Each city should also formulate corresponding policies tailored to local conditions to attract high-tech industry talents.At the same time,we should leverage the leading role of foreign trade advantageous cities such as Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai,utilize policy and geographical advantages to continuously expand imports,increase the attractiveness of foreign investment,and promote high-quality development of foreign trade.In addition,Shandong Province should adhere to the development of domestic trade as the focus,but at the same time,it should also improve the level of foreign trade and promote coordinated and mutually beneficial development of regional economies. |
