Research On The Development Of Agricultural Insurance In Chongqing Under Extreme Climate

In recent years,climate change in China has become increasingly irregular and extreme,and agricultural risks are bound to rise gradually under extreme climate conditions,while the risks of agricultural production are uncertain and systematic.The development of agricultural insurance in Chongqing is fraught with uncertainties and challenges in the face of large agricultural losses caused by extreme climate.The Guidance on Accelerating the High-Quality Development of Agricultural Insurance adopted in 2019 proposes to build a multi-level agricultural insurance system that adapts to the development of rural modernization,the real needs of farmers,and central and local pooling.It is urgent for Chongqing’s agricultural insurance to cope with the impact brought by climate and explore a sustainable and healthy development path for agricultural insurance.In this context,this paper first analyzes the agricultural production and agricultural insurance development in Chongqing,and concludes that the current degree of agricultural climate disaster loss in Chongqing shows a fluctuating decline,but the possibility of suffering from climate catastrophe risk in the future is still high;the agricultural output value and crop yield increase year by year,and the yield and output value of cash crops are higher than those of food crops;the development of agricultural insurance is on the rise but lower than the national level,and the recent 11 years,the payout level is higher.Secondly,the influencing factors of agricultural insurance in Chongqing were analyzed through gray correlation model.Then,a climate-agriculture-agricultural insurance model is established through system dynamics,and a causal loop analysis is performed to construct a flowchart and simulate and analyze the data through recent years,and finally a historical test is performed to determine the feasibility of the model before proceeding to the next step of simulation.The simulation study of agricultural insurance development is carried out under the existing extreme climate loss scenario and agricultural insurance model.Through the above study,this paper concludes that from 2022 to 2025,the degree of agricultural climate loss in Chongqing City fluctuates more than the five years before 2022;the growth rate of crop production slows down and the agricultural output value increases year by year;the insurance amount of agricultural insurance gradually rises,while the insurance payout rate shows a large fluctuation,with the payout rate as high as 86.13% in 2023.Under the existing model,Chongqing City has a higher agricultural insurance payout rate in years with a higher degree of climate loss,which has a certain impact on the sustainability of agricultural insurance.Adjustments were made by individually adjusting the rate to 5%,the agricultural insurance coverage to 60%,and a combination of multiple variables for agricultural sown area,agricultural insurance coverage,and rate.It was found that the coordination of multiple variables worked more holistically and reciprocally,which had an impact on the whole agricultural production and agricultural insurance system,reduced the insurance payout rate,and made the development of agricultural insurance more stable.Finally,through the analysis related to the existing agricultural insurance in Chongqing and the summary and analysis of the system dynamics model operation and simulation results,suggestions are made in four aspects: policy subsidies,innovative agricultural insurance types,establishment of agricultural catastrophe decentralization system,and agricultural reinsurance.