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Study On The Agricultural Index Insurance Method

Posted on:2012-11-26Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y F RenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2120330335458690Subject:Science of meteorology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China is one of the countries in the world, which has being suffered the most serious natural disasters. The loss caused by meteorological disaster occupies nearly 70% of those disaster loses. Although the country encouraged domestic and foreign insurance companies to participate in the task of preventing and reducing disasters through releasing a series of related financial and insurance reform policies, in order to achieve the disaster insurance marketization, at present disaster insurance indemnities of our country only occupies about 3% of the natural disaster total losses. Therefore, it is imperative to speed up the study of natural disaster insurance. This paper taking Henan Province's staple crop winter wheat as the study object, using the historical agricultural statistics materials, the historic record of crops growth and disaster situations, and the climatic data, based on the construction of Henan winter wheat drought index by separating the growth stages, considering the insurance risk dispersion theory, the rules of drought happened in space and time scale were analysed. And then, combining correlated theories and methods on natural disaster risk and insurance, winter wheat drought risks analysis and regionalization, as well as weather index insurance regionalization and policy-related insurance regionalization were carried out in winter wheat drought at county level. Based on that, premium rates were arranged by using the method of experienced premium rate and the per unit area yield distribution model. Meanwhile, the operable production of agricultural weather index insurance and the insurance premium rates were explored. The main results in the article would be presented as following:1. The drought index, based on the relative wet index, , considering winter wheat's biology characteristic and its sensitivities in different growth stages, as well as the influence of the precipitation before sowing, were constructed, which was suitable for the Henan Province winter wheat and had a good instruction of crop drought.2. The predominant spatial distribution type of Henan winter wheat in the entire growth stage and essential growth stages was south-north distribute patten, totally, presenting the north dry for the main time trend. EOF analysis's time sequence assumed the rise-drop-slow rise tendency. The principal component cycle of EOF analysis'first modality mainly concentrated on the intermediate frequency vibration of 6 years; in addition, there were also low frequency oscillation of 10 years and high frequency oscillation of 2 years.3. Based on the principle of risk analysis, three risk assessment indexes were used, which include the drought risk, output risk index and disaster resisting index, through cluster analysis method, Henan winter wheat drought regionalization were carried out. The high risk region and moderate-high risk region mainly distributed in the counties located in northweat Henan. The moderate risk area mainly distributed in the counties located in south Henan. The moderate-low region and low region mainly distributed in the counties located in the middle of Henan.4. The agricultural insurance risk regionalization was different from the ordinary risk regionalization and different regionalization index and methods should be used in view of the different goal of insurance regionalization. Meteorological index insurance only considered the relationship between meteorological elements and outputs, while regarding the policy insurance, under certain condition of prevention and remedial treatment as well as the social economical level, influences of many kinds of factors would be taken into consideration. The regionalization results of these two methods were significantly different.5. In the method of experienced premium rate the key was to decide the years when the revenues and expenditures are balanced. The spatial distribution tendency of average and maximum premium rate arranged under the situation of six-year cycle was similar with the premium rate arranged under the situation of multi-year average situation (N=36), which great value intently distributed in the northwest of Henan Province. When using the method of per unit area yield distribution mode arranged the premium rate, the key is choosing the best per unit area yield distribution model. The premium rates, arranged by this method, in the northwest of Henan Province are much higher than that in the southeast. The differences of the premium rate arranged by the method of experienced premium rate and per unit area yield distribution mode were mainly depend on the chosen best distribution mode.6. Through the regression analysis of drought index and reduce production rate, the relationship between the deviation degree the drought index from trigger value and reduction percentage in the whole growth stage and essential growth stages, from which the insurance liability form were designed and indemnity were calculated. In combination with the theory of regional production index insurance and meteorological index insurance, the comprehensive index premium rate of winter wheat drought, which showed that high value areas mainly distributed in the north of Henan, while low value areas mainly distributed in the south of Henan. The premium rate of weather index insurance is distinctly higher than that of regional production insurance. Based on that, the premium rates were revised by the result of the weather index insurance risk regionalization. The spatial distribution of revised premium rate had certain changes that the high value area extended visibly towards the west of Henan Province, while the medium-low value area extended towards the north of Henan Province. Except few counties with minor changes, the special distribution of other value areas remained the same.
Keywords/Search Tags:winter wheat drought, rick assessment, insurance risk assessment, arrangement of presuim rate, designation of insurance production
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