Study On Water Resources Allocation In Kuye River Basin Based On Agent Model

With the development of cconomy and socicty, the conflict between humans and nature has been deepened, the water resourees system has evolved from a natural system to a coupled complex system of humans and nature. Taking the Kuye River Basin as the study area, this paper establishes an adaptive model of basin water resources allocation by using the SWAT distributed hydrological model and agent-based model water resources system model, and studies the mutual feeding relationship between environmental change and human water use behavior, The main results of this study are as follows.(1) The distributed hydrological model of the basin was constructed based on SWAT, and the correlation coefficient R~2 and Nash coefficient Ess were used to evaluate the applicability of the model, and the parameters were set based on the runoff data of the hydrological station at the Wenjiachuan station of the Kuye River at the rating period. The R2 was 0.70 and the Exs was 0.66 for the rating period without coal mining, and the R~2 was 0.67 and the Eas was 0.63 for the validation period, which had a high simulation accuracy. The runoff data from 2002 to 2005 during the coal mining period were used to readjust the parameters, and the adjusted simulated runoff trends were basically consistent with the measured values, with R~2 of 0.59 and Exs of 0.55 after the adjustment of parameters.(2) A modcl of the water consumption bchavior of each agent was constructed based on the complex adaptive system of water resourees in the basin. The required parameters for the behavior theory of residents’ water conservation plan were obtained by questionnaire survey, and the regression model of residents’ water conservation behavior was established by path analysis method; the farmers were defined as cognitive agents with learning ability, and the adaptive bchavior and decision process of water use of agricultural agents were described; the adaptive behavior and decision process of water use of industrial water agents were established; the ecological water demand of the basin was summarized into the ecological water demand inside the river channel and the ecological water de mand outside the river channel. and the ecolog ical agent is reg arded as anactive agent, the agent decision-making process is to control the river flow and adjust the vegetation area distribution in the construction of soil and water conservation to guarantee the ecological high-quality development in the basin.(3) The watershed is divided into 18 calculation units using the watershed overlay to administrative districts to simulate the water resources of the Kuye River basin from 2022 to 2035. Based on the future rainfall data from the RegCM4.6 model, we simulated the future water resources in the basin and incorporate unconventional water reso urces into the water resources allocation syste m, analyzed three ada ptive fac tor-driven water resources allocation scenarios, and calculated the runoff volume of the outlet cross-section under different adaptive factor-driven scenarios. Through the analysis of the allocation schemes, countemeasures and suggestions for the sustainable deve lopment of the basin are proposed.