Study On Water Resources Allocation In Kuye River Basin Based On Agent Model

Driven by changing environment and increasingly frequent human activities,runoff is affected by the combination of many factors,showing different change laws and characteristics.Taking the Dali River Basin in the Loess Plateau of the Yellow River Basin as the research object,based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics of the corresponding hydrometeorological elements of multiple control sections of the main and tributary of the basin,the vertical decomposition method and elastic coefficient method of Budyko hydrothermal coupling balance equation were used to carry out the annual runoff changes.Attribution exploration and quantitative characterization,using the abcd model hydrological analogy method and the seasonscale Budyko hydrothermal coupling balance equation vertical decomposition method to quantify the changes of runoff at the seasonal scale of dry tributaries,the following main results have been achieved.(1)Mann-Kendall rank correlation test,linear trend regression and Spearman rank test were used to analyze the hydrometeorological elements of the Dali River Basin and three sub-basins:At the annual scale,the temperature and potential evapotranspiration and precipitation in the basin showed an upward trend;Runoff showed an upward trend in the upper reaches of the Dali River,and a downward trend in the Dali River Basin,Xiaoli River Basin and Chabagou River Basin.Precipitation is on the rise in all four basins.At the seasonal scale,the temperature,potential evapotranspiration and precipitation in the basin showed an upward trend.Runoff showed an upward trend in winter in the Dali River Basin,spring and winter in the Qingyang Fork Basin,and a downward trend in the rest of the seasons.(2)Precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method,Lee-Heghinian and cumulative distance method were used to diagnose mutations in annual runoff sequences and quaternaryscale runoff sequences.On the annual scale,the sudden change of runoff in the Dali River Basin and the Xiaoli River Basin was similar,both around 1970.The relationship between precipitation and runoff in the upper reaches of Dali River was good,and the year of mutation was in 2010.The relationship between precipitation and runoff before and after the mutation in the Chabagou basin was not good,and the mutation year was 1996.At the seasonal scale,the year of sudden change in seasonal runoff in the Dali River Basin and the upper reaches of the Dali River was basically consistent with the annual scale.The sudden change years and annual scales of winter runoff in Xiaoli River Basin and in Chabagou were inconsistent,and the changes of runoff in other seasons were consistent with the annual scale.(3)The land use data,geospatial data clouds Landsat 5,Landsta8 remote sensing data and silt dam data of the Yulin Hydrological Manual were used to analyze the underlying surface changes in the Dali River Basin.The change of land use was mainly the transformation of cultivated land to forest land and grassland,and the total cultivated land area decreased by 3.73%from 2000 to 2020.The change of vegetation cover was mainly from moderate cover to medium height cover,and the height coverage reached 21.39%by 2020,and the change of vegetation cover mainly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the region.The construction of silt dams in the basin was concentrated in 1970-1980,and the construction of silt dams in the middle and lower reaches of the Dali River from 1970 to 1979 was mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Dali River.(4)The vertical decomposition method(four formulas)and elastic coefficient method based on Budyko hydrothermal balance formula and the calculation of elastic coefficient method basically reached the same conclusion,and human activities were the main factors of runoff change in the Dali River Basin,Xiaoli River Basin and Chabagou Basin,accounting for an average of 105.70%,81.42%and 197.75%respectively.Climate change is the main factor of runoff change in the upper reaches of Dali River,accounting for an average of 121%,and precipitation change contributes 123.62%to runoff change in the calculation of elasticity coefficient.(5)The contribution of climate change and human activities to the change of runoff at the seasonal scale was quantified by vertical decomposition of the abcd model hydrological analogy method and the season-scale Budyko hydrothermal coupling balance equation.The results obtained by the abcd model and the season-scale Budyko method were similar,and the results of the two models were better in summer,autumn and winter.The changes of runoff in summer,autumn and winter in the Dali River Basin,Xiaoli River Basin and Chabagou Watershed are mainly due to human activities,and the upper reaches of the Dali River have a higher altitude and less human activities,so the runoff changes in the basin are mainly based on climate change,among which the seasonal scale Budyko vertical decomposition method is calculated in autumn to increase the runoff by 15.27mm,and the abcd model calculation result is 9.84mm,accounting for more than 74%.