LUCC Trajectory Analysis And Trend Prediction Based On Multi-Source Time Series Remote Sensing Data

With the rapid development of modernization and the progress of remote sensing technology,land use/Cover Change(LUCC)has attracted the attention of international scientific organizations,and has rapidly become the key research direction of global ecological environment construction and sustainable development.Danjiang River Basin(Henan Section)is an important water source of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in China.With the implementation of the water diversion project,the land use/cover situation of Danjiang River Basin(Henan Section)will inevitably change,and the ecological environment protection and construction of the water supply area is the top priority of the sustainable development of the ecological environment in China.Therefore,analyzing the change of land use trajectory and forecasting the future land use pattern of the study area can provide science for water source protection,ecological environment construction and sustainable development planning.Based on remote sensing and GIS and other spatial information technology,this paper obtains the land use classification results of the study area according to the remote sensing image data,DEM data and other relevant data in the study area,extracts the land use change track of the study area by using the change map method,and derives the calculation formula of the stable mapping STD index value by using the improved stable mapping change track analysis method The change track can be divided into five kinds of track processes and further refined into three-level track types.On this basis,combined with quantitative analysis model and landscape index model,the overall characteristics and spatial distribution of the change track in the study area are analyzed.Finally,through CA Markov model,the suitability Atlas of land transformation in the study area is constructed to simulate the land use pattern in2027.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Construction of land use change track model in research areaAccording to Landsat TM/OLI and HJ-1A in 2002-2017 CCD Remote sensing image,using support vector machine classification method,obtains the land-use type data of 16 periods in the study area,constructs the land-use change track of the study area by extracting the land spatial unit change map,and uses the improved stable mapping change track method to calculate the long-term multi-phase stable mapping STD index value,and divides the land-use change track of the study area into stable ones According to the actual land use situation in the study area,the track types are divided into three levels.(2)Analysis on the track of land use change in the study areaBased on the improved stable mapping change trajectory model,five types of land use change trajectory in the study area are obtained.Combined with the quantitative analysis model such as annual change rate and comprehensive land use dynamic degree,and landscape pattern index such as maximum patch index,scattered parallel index and aggregation index,the overall characteristics and spatial configuration of land use trajectory change in the study area are analyzed.The results show that 2002-20 In 2017,the cultivated land in the study area decreased significantly,the construction land and water area continued to increase,the woodland and grassland first decreased and then increased,and the bare land was relatively stable;the main flow of land use change in the study area was concentrated in the construction land and water area,which was mainly transformed from cultivated land.At the same time,due to the construction of Danjiangkou reservoir area and the implementation of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion,the water area increased from 218.60km~2 to 400.31km~2 Under the influence of natural topography,the forest land in the northern mountainous area and hilly area is well protected,while the forest land,cultivated land and grassland in the transitional area between hills and plains have significantly transformed each other,accounting for5.85%of the total area of the study area.The research results can provide scientific data support for the spatial-temporal evolution analysis of land use in the Danjiang River Basin(Henan Section).(3)Trend prediction of land use pattern in the study areaBased on the results of land use classification in the study area,Markov module is used to make the transfer probability matrix and transfer probability image of each category.At the same time,constraint factors are set for each category in combination with the results of change trajectory analysis and the actual land use type situation in the study area.Secondly,the suitability image set of each category is used as the CA conversion rule to realize the land use simulation pre-2027 in the study area In order to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model,the kappa coefficient is 0.8138,which shows that the simulation of the study area is in good condition.The results show that the area of cultivated land,construction land and water area will increase in the next 10 years,and the area of forest land and grassland will decrease slightly.Combined with the analysis of social population and economic data,the development trend is also in line with the development planning and actual land use situation of the study area.On the whole,CA Markov model has certain reliability for the trend prediction of land use types,and its application in the Danjiang River Basin(Henan Section)has scientific basis and theoretical guidance for the future ecological environment and sustainable planning of land resources in the study area.