Characteristics And Prediction Of Land Use And Land Cover Change,and Ecological Security Evaluation In Kaidu River-Peacock River Basin

This study uses the Kaidu-Peacock River Basin south of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang as a research area,which is a relatively ecologically sensitive area in Xinjiang and an important ecological area.By using remote sensing and GIS technologies,the land use classification maps of the study area in 2011 and 2016 were obtained,and the land use changes in the basin between 2011 and 2016 were analyzed from the aspects of spatial quantitative transformation and structural changes;The Markov prediction model quantitatively predicts changes in land use types in the study area over the next 50 years.At the same time,taking into consideration the natural and human factors in the region,we have selected a number of national economic indicators and spatial indicators in different dimensions to construct an ecological safety assessment index system for the Kaidu-Peacock River basin,based on the PSR model for the study area.A comprehensive eco-safety evaluation of 30 resolution raster levels was performed and the results showed:(1)During the period from 2011 to 2016,the land use change in the study area showed a relatively stable state overall,among which the growth of residential land was the most intense and significant,and the cultivated land,water area,forest land,wetland,etc.Also showed an upward trend,and sandy land,grassland,and product Snow,bare land,and saline land show decreasing trends.(2)Through analyzing the land use data of the predicted 50 years in the study area,it can be seen that in the future,the growth trend of cultivated land driven by the growth of residents is still obvious,and the decreasing trend of saline-alkali land and grassland will reach a stable state around 2030.(3)The result of ecological security evaluation shows that the area with the largest proportion of the study area is of a critical safety level,the ratio of safe and safe grades is 35.04%,and the area of unsafe and less secure is 15.81%.The ecological security in the study area tends to be good,but specifically,the lower reaches of the Tarim River are mostly at a relatively unsafe and insecure level,and the ecological vulnerability of this region is more prominent.Except for Hejing County,other regions are mostly within borderline safety and safer regions,which proves that the system service function in the study area is not perfect and the ability to resist external interference is weak.The ecological structure is not complete.It is extremely difficult to recover after being disturbed by the outside world.There are many ecological problems and more ecological disasters.The level of ecological security presents more obvious spatial changes,and the level of ecological security from north to south gradually becomes lower.Judging from the division of administrative regions,the ranking of ecological security levels is Hejing County> Bohu County> Ji County> Korla City> Heshuo County> Yuli County.The land use/cover change in the basin is generally stable,but based on the larger area area base,the absolute number of mutual transformations in each area is still relatively large,and the transformation of various types will gradually become stable in the next 50 years.The level of regional ecological security is relatively low,and it faces more severe protection and recovery pressure on the ecosystem.In the subsequent work,we should further strengthen the protection of the ecological environment,and proceed from the aspects of institutional innovation and other aspects to formulate environmental development and protection strategies.