Research On Regional Photovoltaic Development Potential And Economic Evaluation Model Based On GIS

The development of photovoltaics is an important means to promote the energy revolution,alleviate environmental pressures,and promote regional sustainable development.China vigorously develops photovoltaic power generation,and the installed capacity and research investment of photovoltaics are increasing year by year.The cost of photovoltaic power generation is gradually approaching the cost of coal-fired power generation.China has accurately controlled the development of the photovoltaic industry,and timely put forward the policy of photovoltaic parity Internet access.Against this background,regional photovoltaic development planning not only needs to consider the breadth and accuracy of research,but also needs to comprehensively consider the photovoltaic development potential and its economic feasibility in the region.In this paper,GIS technology,AHP-DEMATEL method,LCOE model and two-factor learning curve are organically combined to build a GIS-based regional photovoltaic development potential and economic evaluation model.This paper improves the evaluation model of regional photovoltaic development potential.By screening,merging and supplementing the assessment indicators of photovoltaic development potential in typical areas,the constructed assessment indicator system of regional photovoltaic development potential is more universal under different natural and social conditions.AHP-DEMATEL method is used to assign weights to the indicator layers and draw a comprehensive score map of regional photovoltaic development potential,which can determine the distribution of photovoltaic development potential in the region.On this basis,this paper constructs an economic evaluation model of regional photovoltaic development.Drawing on the calculation method of the life cycle cost items of the LCOE model,the cost and revenue items of photovoltaic development throughout the life cycle are calculated,and a levelized profit of energy model is constructed.In the GIS environment,using this model to calculate the critical unit photovoltaic equipment cost of the locations with high scores in the comprehensive score map of photovoltaic development potential,and comparing it with the unit photovoltaic equipment price predicted by the two-factor learning curve,the critical time for each location to achieve grid parity is obtained.The photovoltaic development project of the location can obtain profits by being put into production after this critical time.In addition,considering the role of photovoltaic equipment in conserving water and soil,this paper proposes that photovoltaic development projects can be carried out together with desertification control projects and can be subsidized according to the ecosystem service value of photovoltaic,which can improve the economic viability of photovoltaic development projects.In this way,the evaluation of regional photovoltaic development potential and its economic viability is completed,and the selected locations have a great potential for photovoltaic development and good economic viability.Taking Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example,the results of case analysis and the actual photovoltaic development situation have a high degree of coincidence,which pro ves the effectiveness of the model,and verifies that photovoltaic ecosystem services can improve the economy of photovoltaic development projects.The GIS-based regional photovoltaic development potential and its economic evaluation model constructed in this paper takes GIS technology as the main analysis tool and layers as the data carrier,connecting the regional photovoltaic development potential evaluation model and the regional photovoltaic development economic evaluation model,making the analysis more comprehensive and taking into account the breadth and accuracy of the research.The results of the analysis are ultimately presented in map form,allowing decision-makers to accurately evaluate the conditions for regional photovoltaic development with relatively low learning costs.