| Urbanization is the main trend in the contemporary world.With the development of society,the degree of urbanization is increasing,and increasingly abundant economic,social resources,and population factors are gathering in cities.At the same time,in the face of global climate change,extreme weather has led to frequent natural disasters,among which rainstorm and flood disasters take the lead,posing a serious threat to the safety of people’s lives and property and the quality of human settlements.Improving urban resilience can effectively cope with the uncertainty impact brought by rainstorm weather,and minimize the adverse impact of disasters on the stable operation of urban system.Therefore,this paper selects Jiangsu Province as the research object,comprehensively evaluates the urban rainstorm resilience of Jiangsu Province,grasps the level of urban resilience development,analyzes the influencing factors of urban resilience,and provides reference for improving urban resilience to cope with the impact of various adverse factors and promoting urban sustainable development.On the basis of studying the related concepts and theories of urban rainstorm resilience and drawing on the research results at home and abroad,this paper selects 15 indicators from three dimensions of urban social disaster bearing capacity,urban resource endowment,and urban disaster prevention measures,calculates the index weight using entropy weight method,builds an assessment model of urban rainstorm resilience,and obtains the assessment results of urban rainstorm resilience in Jiangsu Province,Then,the spatialtemporal evolution of 13 urban resilience subsystems and urban comprehensive resilience in Jiangsu Province is analyzed,and the spatial correlation pattern of urban rainstorm resilience is discussed by using spatial correlation.Based on the grey correlation analysis method,this study investigates the influencing factors of urban resilience in Jiangsu Province,and proposes practical and feasible countermeasures and suggestions for resilience level.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The comprehensive economic strength of Jiangsu Province has long been among the forefront in China,and its strategic position is very important.Under the influence of monsoon climate,rainfall is abundant,with large interannual variations and frequent extreme rainfall.In 2016,Jiangsu Province was affected by the super strong El Ni ? o event,with the highest rainfall;In 2019,Jiangsu Province experienced continuous drought and limited rainfall.There are significant differences in spatial distribution,with abundant rainfall in southern Jiangsu,followed by central Jiangsu.According to the analysis of disaster data,Nantong and Huai’an cities were the most severely affected by extreme rainfall.(2)The overall scores of cities in Jiangsu Province in terms of social disaster bearing capacity,resource endowment,and disaster prevention measures are showing an upward trend.The ranking of cities has not changed much,and there is still significant room for improvement in some cities.The overall resilience level is gradually improving,and the differences are gradually narrowing,but the resilience index in southern Jiangsu is much higher than that in central and northern Jiangsu.The spatial pattern of urban resilience in Jiangsu Province has always shown a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the south and low in the north",with the overall center of gravity moving towards the north and the distance gradually increasing.The resilience level of cities in northern Jiangsu Province has improved rapidly.The standard deviation ellipse exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of"northwest southeast".In terms of spatial correlation of urban resilience,Moran’s I is globally positive and has passed at least a 5%significance level,indicating that urban resilience in Jiangsu Province has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.The mutual influence between economic and social development within the same region has led to a trend of high concentration in southern Jiangsu and low concentration in northern Jiangsu.(3)According to the correlation degree between the selected indicators and urban resilience,only one indicator is moderately correlated,while the other indicators are highly correlated with urban resilience with a correlation degree above 0.6.Among them,indicators such as the proportion of output value of the secondary and tertiary industries to GDP,road density,and other factors have a high correlation with urban resilience,which has a significant impact on improving urban resilience.. |
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