| Hubei Province is located in the central part of China,with rich and diverse landform types,great altitude disparity,and superior ecological environment and climate,which makes Hubei Province rich in wild plant resources and a wide variety of species.However,with the global climate change,the protection of plant diversity is under enormous pressure,and the protection of wild plant resources and species diversity in hotspots has become a topic of common concern at home and abroad.At present,many wild plants in Hubei Province are facing serious threats and are even endangered.Therefore,studying the potential suitable habitat distribution and protection gap analysis of key protected wild plants in different climate periods in the future can provide an important theoretical basis for the protection of wild plant resources in Hubei Province.In this paper,22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei province were studied.Based on their distribution point data and environmental variables,using the Max Ent model and Acr GIS software,the 22 typical key protected wild plants were analyzed under the current and future four climate scenarios respectively.The distribution of potential suitable habitats for plants was predicted,and the dominant environmental factors affecting their distribution and the changes in the area of highly suitable habitats under the climate in the next four forecast periods were obtained.Finally,22 typical key protected wild plant species hotspot areas in Hubei Province were identified,and protection vacancies were analyzed based on the hotspot areas and natural reserves in Hubei Province,and suggestions for optimizing the nature reserves were put forward.The main findings are as follows:(1)Under the current climatic conditions,the potential highly suitable habitat area of Hubei Province for the 22 typical key protected wild plants is 183,299 km~2,mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest of Hubei Province: in the central part of Baokang County,Northern District of Yiling County,northwestern Wufeng Tujia Autonomous County,Shennongjia Forest District,southwestern Lichuan City,northern Xuan’en County,central Badong County,southern Fangxian County,etc.;There is a small amount of low suitable habitat distribution in Yunxi County,Yunyang District,northeastern Macheng City,Luotian County,Yingshan County,and the junction of Qichun County and Huangmei County.The potential high suitable habitat area of Hubei Province for the 22 typical key protected wild plants accounted for23.46% of the total suitable habitat area in Hubei Province.The dominant environmental factors are: slope,average temperature in the wettest quarter,precipitation in the wettest quarter,and altitude.(2)From now to 2100,through the analysis of potential suitable habitats of 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei Province,it is found that the distribution area of potential suitable habitat decreased significantly in 14 species,expanded significantly in 5 species.There are 3 species with no obvious changes in the distribution area of potential suitable habitats;(3)In 2021-2040 and 2041-2060,the total area of highly suitable habitats for 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei Province decreased by 57.28% and 52.21%,respectively;in 2061-2080 and 2081-2100,the total area of highly suitable habitats first increased by 60.71%,and then decreased by 16.38%.(4)From the current to the end of the 21 st century,the potential suitable habitat areas of 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei Province have generally migrated to the northwest.(5)The hot spots of 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei Province are mainly distributed in the southwestern and northwestern regions of Hubei Province.Its area in the nature reserves of Hubei Province is 5797.51km~2,and the protected areas of hot spots account for 14.52% of the total area of Hubei Province.The area of protection vacancies in hot spots is 21,203.89 km~2,and the protection vacancies account for 11.4% of the total area of Hubei Province.Among them,the area of hot spots is 533.34 km~2 in nature reserves,and the area of protection vacancies is 3341.74km~2.The area of the sub-hot spot in the nature reserve is 982.28km~2,and the area of the protection vacancy area is 1546.51km~2.The area of medium hot spots in nature reserves is 1980.72 km~2,and the area of protection vacancies is 4960.53 km~2.The area of low hotspots in nature reserves is 2301.17km~2,and the area of protection vacancies is 11355.11km~2.The protection vacancies are mainly distributed in the north of Lichuan City,the west of Xuan’en County,the southeast of Hefeng County,the southwest and east of Enshi City,the middle of Jianshi County,the west of Zigui County,the northeast and southeast of Xingshan County,and the south of Zhuxi County.The area of protected hotspots of 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei province is quite different from the area of protected vacant areas.This study revealed the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of 22 typical key protected wild plants in Hubei Province,described the geographical distribution of potential suitable habitats in different periods in the current and future,obtained the spatial distribution pattern of 22 typical key protected wild plant species in Hubei Province by using Acrgis software.In addition,it is superimposed and analyzed with the boundary vector map of natural reserves in Hubei Province to obtain the protection vacancies.The protection vacancies in the hotspot areas will be the areas to be considered in the next step of protection planning.Consideration can be given to the construction of new protected areas or the expansion of nature reserves,and the optimization of the protected area system,so as to improve the current protection efficiency and achieve the goal of biodiversity protection in the hotspots.To ensure the best protection,our findings provide an important reference for the protection of rare and endangered plants in Hubei Province. |
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