Research On Risk Transmission And Control Of Complex Supply Chain Network Based On SIRS Model

Driven by the development trend of economic globalization and the progress of information technology,the connection between enterprises in the supply chain is getting closer and closer,and the supply chain network structure is evolving into a more complex one.The possibility of supply chain risks also increases as the industry of supply chain grows and the supply chain network becomes increasingly complex.A wide variety of risks with high uncertainty can interfere with the business operations of enterprises in the supply chain network,deal a blow to their capital capacity,and negatively affect the stability and development of the whole supply chain network.Effective control of supply chain risks is not only a concern for the development of various industries,but also a clear instruction requirement in national planning.Therefore,it is important to research on complex supply chain networks and supply chain risk control.Focusing on the background of supply chain network complexity,this paper conducts a study on the transmission and control of supply chain risks in complex supply chain networks.Firstly,by reading through the relevant research literature of domestic and foreign and combining with the reality of supply chain network development,this paper clarifies the concept and characteristics of complex supply chain networks and supply chain risks,so as to lay the foundation for selecting the appropriate model for the next study.Second,a multi-layer complex network model is constructed as the complex supply chain network model.Analysis of the model’s properties is carried out to show the rationality of abstracting the complex supply chain network with its description.Then,SIRS model is selected from the infectious disease models to describe the supply chain risk transmission through analogical analysis,and the mathematical analysis of the model is conducted.The mechanism of risk transmission in the complex supply chain network is then revealed by the results of numerical simulation,a model validation summary is performed.In addition,the effect of initial infection rate on risk transmission not participating in the risk transmission process is discussed.Next,this paper discusses risk control strategies in complex supply chain networks from three perspectives,describes the different supply chain risk control methods by adapting and improves the supply chain risk transfer model.The model parameters are adjusted to study the risk control of complex supply chain networks by regulating system capabilities.I-SIRS model is constructed to study the risk control of complex supply chain networks taking pre-immunization.The SIRS-D model is constructed to study the risk control of complex supply chain networks by introducing elimination mechanism.On this basis,this paper performs calculations and simulations on the model,sorts out and analyzes the results,summarizes the specific impact of different risk control methods on risk transmission,and reveals the effect of different risk control strategies on supply chain risk control.Finally,according to the results of the above research,specific recommendations with targeted and practical significance are proposed for risk control of complex supply chain networks from three different perspectives: risk prevention,risk response,and network construction.In order to describe the complex supply chain network more accurately in terms of model,a multi-layer complex network model with both horizontal and vertical links is constructed as a complex supply chain network model in this paper,following the characteristics such as multiple layers in the complex supply chain network.This paper introduces the elimination mechanism in conducting risk control research to analyze its impact on risk transmission,and the improved model is analyzed mathematically to verify the accuracy of the model.Moreover,this paper discusses in depth the mechanism and effect of supply chain risk control from multiple perspectives,and clarifies the mechanism of different risk control methods..It provides theoretical references for the entire supply chain and supply chain enterprises to take appropriate risk control measures,which is conducive to improving the risk management level of enterprises and promoting the stable and positive development of the whole complex supply chain network.