Research On Influence Of Individual Estimation Changes On Effect Of The Wisdom Of Crowds Based On Information Cues

In the prediction scenario,the prediction scheme of aggregating the answers of all individuals in the group is better than that of most individuals,which is the wisdom of crowds.With the development of network information technology and computing equipment software,it is more and more convenient and accurate to measure the wisdom of crowds,which promotes the research of its effect evaluation.In the existing research on the evaluation of the effect of the wisdom of crowds,most of the results focus on the value of group wisdom and how to measure it,while the number of researches on the influence mechanism of it are less.In order to understand the influence mechanism of the effect of the wisdom of crowds,this study explored the relationship between different aggregation methods,information cues and task scenarios and the effect.First of all,based on the concept of the wisdom of crowds,this study determined the connotation and quantitative method of the effect.Then,through the literature,it is found that previous scholars generally use Median and Mean as the measurement method to get the aggregation scheme of the group.On this basis,this study introduces the Root Mean Square,a new aggregation method.Thirdly,based on the literature review,the research hypotheses of aggregation methods,information cues and the relationship between task scenarios and the effect of the wisdom of crowds are proposed.Finally,the research model of the effect is established by combining the aggregation method,information cues and task scene,and the real task scene is designed through experiments.In the experiment,according to No information cue,Representative information cues and Heuristic information cues,we divided them into three experimental groups.Before and after the introduction of information cues,we observed the changes of individual estimates of the three experimental groups.Then,according to the different group decision-making results caused by the change of individual estimates,the corresponding group intelligence effect values under different aggregation methods,information prompts and task scenarios are compared to determine the relationship between the influencing factors in the hypothesis.The results show that: 84.5% of the sample data show that the Root Mean Square is better than the Mean as an aggregation method to measure the effect of the wisdom of crowds.100% of the sample data shows that for the lack of information uncertainty,giving information cues can stimulate the group to produce better effect.But the aggregation method will affect the comparison of different information prompting methods.100% of the sample data shows that: if the Mean is used as the aggregation method,decision makers should tend to use the Representative informationcues;If Root Mean Square is used,the Heuristic information cues are better.In addition,the study found that 75% of the sample data showed that the effect changed significantly in the face of different task scenarios,which was due to the different characteristics of prediction range and task type in different task scenarios.