Research On Influence On Efficiency Of The Wisdom Of Crowds In One Mind Based On Heuristics Of Clues

With the rapid development of Internet technology and intelligent mobile terminals,capturing the wisdom of crowds becomes more and more perfect.However,individuals can,to some extent,also harness the wisdom of crowds within confines of their own mind by averaging self-generated estimates,which is the wisdom of crowds in one mind.Existed research mainly focus on the excitation effect of dialectical-bootstrapping and time delay on the wisdom of crowds in one mind,but this research investigate the influence of heuristic method on the efficiency of the wisdom of crowds in one mind under different types of questions through using two kinds of aggregation methods which is probability mean and arithmetic mean,based on the measurement method of the strength of the wisdom of crowds in one mind.In order to explore the complex relationship between different aggregation methods,heuristics,types of questions and the efficiency of the wisdom of crowds in one mind,this study proposes the corresponding research hypothesis based on domestic and foreign references.Then,at first,begin with the definition of the effect of the wisdom of crowds in one mind,this research clearly defines the measurement method of the strength of the wisdom of crowds in one mind based on the accuracy improvement.Secondly,based on the analysis of minimizing the KL divergence between self-generated estimates,this study proposes a new aggregation method except mean,the mean of probability.Finally,the efficiency model of the wisdom of crowds in one mind was established by combining aggregation methods,heuristic and types of questions,and the laboratory research method was applied to design different types of experimental problems and divide experimental group into the blank group,representative heuristic group and social influence heuristics group to collect the experimental data,which each of the individual provides five consecutive estimates for each problem and N is 150.Compared with the efficiency of the wisdom of crowds in one mind under different aggregation methods,different heuristics and different types of questions,this research analyzes the relationship between the various factors in the theoretical hypothesis.The theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrates that the probability mean can embody the greater superiority as aggregation method in comparison with arithmetic mean.As for the uncertainty questions which is lack of information,the introduction of heuristic method can stimulate decision-makers to emerge stronger efficiency of the wisdom of crowds in one mind.However,the method of aggregation method has also an influence on choosing the heuristic method of representation heuristic and social influence heuristic.For mean as aggregation method,the decision-makers should be more inclined to draw lessons from information of the similar problems.For the probability means as aggregation method,the decision-makers should be more inclined to consult others' advice.In addition,this research also found that confronted with different types of questions,decision makers should attach importance to reducing the length of the valuation interval and avoiding the logical cognition of popular answers.