Disruption Management Model Under Accidental Travel Time Delay Based On Possibility Theory

As a process of direct contact with customers,logistics distribution service is an important part of the entire logistics system.The effect of logistics and distribution services will not only affect the cost of logistics and distribution of enterprises,but also affect the customer's return rate and loyalty to the enterprise,and ultimately affect the image and reputation of the enterprise itself.Therefore,enterprises will make an initial distribution plan to ensure timely and efficient distribution before the implementation of logistics distribution.However,many unavoidable uncertain events often occur during the distribution process,such as traffic jams,abrupt weather changes and vehicle failures.The time delay caused by these disturbances may interfere with the enterprise's original distribution plan and prevent the smooth implementation.The emergence of disturbance management is to minimize the disturbance of these events to the logistics system,which is also the core of disturbance management research.After the disturbance has had an impact,how to measure the disturbance and how to adjust quickly to produce the solution that minimizes the disturbance to the logistics system are considered in this article.At the same time,we also consider how to reduce its influence on the subsequent distribution process disturbance in the route planning for normalized interference events.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)Put forward the bidirectional distribution management model.Through combing and analysis of domestic and foreign distribution management research,it is found that the current research is generally to plan,model and solve the system after the distribution event occurs.This method of distribution management belongs to a kind of distribution management.Although distribution after the incident is very effective to cope with the situation,but its efficiency is not high for the of norm,frequent events like the disturbance of similar to driving caused by traffic congestion delay disturbance as events occur frequently,the impact on the customer will continue to accumulate.Based on this situation,this paper proposes a two-way distribution management method.On the basis of the original post-distribution management,a forward interference management is carried out for the normalized interference events represented by traffic congestion in the initial path planning.(2)Deal with uncertain information using possibility theory.Fuzzy time window is seldom used in the existing research on distribution management,but it is closer to the actual situation.This paper sets the customer time window to be fuzzy.In addition,although there are a few applications of fuzzy time window,in the post-processing of fuzzy time window,the fuzzy number is still converted into interval number form by satisfaction degree,which the fuzzy number is converted into definite number.In this paper,the possibility theory is introduced to deal with the fuzzy time window.And the fuzzy numbers are sorted by the possibility,so the uncertainty of the time window is preserved.(3)The bidirectional distribution management model of logistics distribution based on possibility theory is solved under the travel disturbance delay.The hybrid ant colony algorithm was used to solve the model,and MATLAB2020 was used to realize data processing and model optimization.In summary,this article has important theoretical and practical significance for the study of the bidirectional distribution management model of logistics distribution based on the possibility theory under the condition of delayed driving.In theory,first of all,based on the original theory of distribution management after the event,this paper proposes a bidirectional distribution management method which combines pre event and post event,enriches the theory of distribution management.Secondly,the possibility theory which can effectively deal with uncertain information is applied to the study of logistics path planning and distribution management.It provides a new perspective for uncertain information processing in logistics field.In practice,under the background of more and more frequent traffic jams,the pre disturbance management model considering traffic congestion and other normal interference events has certain guiding value for enterprises that attach importance to customer satisfaction.