Research On Multi-level Node Layout Planning Based On End Demand Forecasting

In recent years,with the continuous development of e-commerce,consumers are increasingly inclined to shop online.What follows is that consumers are increasingly demanding offline logistics services.One of the important indicators is the distribution.Timeliness.However,the current logistics industry is still unable to achieve accurate transportation and timely distribution.The main reason is that the resource utilization rate is not high and the timeliness is poor due to the irregular layout of nodes.Therefore,in the face of increasing logistics demand,from a global perspective,based on the needs of end nodes,scientific and standardized layout of transportation network nodes to form an efficient transportation distribution network has become a core issue for logistics enterprises.By reading the literature on node layout planning in recent years at home and abroad,it can be found that the research on node layout tends to focus on the location of nodes and the planning of distribution routes,and less research on the network layout between existing nodes.Therefore,this paper will focus on the layout of existing nodes.A layout analysis is performed in conjunction with relevant content for end node demand prediction.Based on this,this paper proposes an optimization model with cargo aging as the main constraint to optimize the current transportation scheme.main tasks as follows:(1)Comparing the change of demand data between end nodes and the demand of logistics in the region,it is of little significance to consider using macro factors to analyze them.After analyzing the data characteristics,the ARIMA model is used to analyze its own historical data.Regression predictions to get the appropriate demand forecast.Here,this paper selects the 36 months of data from April 2016 to March 1919 to analyze and determine its prediction model,and use this model to estimate the demand value of the next period.(2)Comparing the different transportation modes in the operation link,analyzing the logistics cost items and the factors affecting the cost,taking the freight aging as the main constraint condition,and the total cost is the objective function to construct the multi-level node layout planning model;The improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the model and accelerate the output of the optimal solution.(3)After conducting on-the-spot investigation of Company A,using the obtained data on transportation distance,transportation time and various types of costs,combined with the model constructed for case analysis,through the obtained three-level transportation plan and mixed transportation plan and original The scheme compares the cost and the timeliness.Through comparison,it can be found that the optimized transportation scheme has reduced the cost and greatly improved the satisfaction of the timeliness.According to the example of Company A,the feasibility of this paper is verified.