Research On Valuation Of Listed Companies In Semiconductor Industry Based On Fuzzy Real Options

The semiconductor industry is very important to the level of scientific and technological development of a country,and it is also a basic and leading industry related to a country's security.China's semiconductor industry started relatively late,there is a large gap between its development level and the international leading level,and its supply capacity is relatively insufficient,but China is the largest consumer market for semiconductors in the world.therefore,domestic substitution for import is the development trend of China's semiconductor industry,which is ushering in a major development opportunity.The semiconductor industry is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry,and capital is the key to its development.Whether semiconductor enterprises seek financing or investors invest in semiconductor enterprises,enterprise value evaluation is very important.A more accurate valuation can provide value reference for semiconductor enterprises' financing development,decision management,mergers and acquisitions and investor investment.Because this kind of enterprises have the characteristics of high R & D investment,high uncertainty and special value composition,the simple use of traditional valuation methods is likely to misestimate or underestimate the value of semiconductor enterprises.Therefore,it is necessary to study the valuation of this kind of enterprise.This paper takes the listed companies in the semiconductor industry as the object,and analyzes their characteristics,value composition and various common valuation methods.Combined with previous studies,it is concluded that the value of this kind of enterprises mainly comes from the value created by the profitability of existing assets and the potential value with option characteristics.Therefore,it is valued by the combination of discounted cash flow model and real option model.The real option method is introduced mainly because it can take into account the use of uncertainty and evaluate the value of future opportunities that can not be evaluated by traditional valuation methods.therefore,it can supplement the shortcomings of traditional valuation methods in evaluating the value of semiconductor enterprises.In the process of valuation,due to the influence of many uncertain factors,the change of the value of semiconductor enterprises has the characteristics of non-random uncertainty,each valuation parameter is not a fixed value,but changes in a certain range,with fuzzy characteristics.Therefore,this paper introduces the fuzzy set theory to improve the key uncertain parameters in the valuation model,and constructs an enterprise value evaluation model based on fuzzy real options,and take semiconductor listed company Montage Technology Co.,Ltd as an example for specific valuation analysis.One of the innovations of this paper is that it not only deals with and quantifies the parameter fuzziness in the real option model,but also considers the influence of the parameter fuzziness in the DCF model on the value,that is,it also makes a fuzzy improvement to the DCF model.In addition,the past research on fuzzy real options mostly validates the model by the way of numerical examples,which is simple and lack of analysis.In this paper,taking Montage TechnologyCo.,Ltd as an example,the specific valuation analysis can better verify the feasibility of the model.The research shows that the enterprise value evaluation model based on fuzzy real option is the modification,supplement and expansion of the traditional valuation model,which makes the valuation result more reasonable by obtaining the change range of enterprise value.The main significance of this paper is to provide a new idea for the valuation of semiconductor enterprises,to supplement the shortcomings of traditional valuation methods in the valuation of semiconductor enterprises,and to enrich the research on real options.