Research On Semiconductor Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On Fuzzy Real Option Method ——Taking San’an Photoelectric As An Example

In recent years,the implementation of "new infrastructure",including 5G,big data analysis and artificial intelligence,has given a strong boost to the development of the semiconductor industry,which is inseparable from semiconductor products as a key technical support.The huge new demand generated by the "new infrastructure" accelerates the establishment of the domestic semiconductor industry system,and China has ushered in the excellent opportunity for the vigorous development of the semiconductor industry.However,due to the lack of independent research and development and production capacity in the semiconductor market,most of the semiconductors in China rely on imports.The outbreak of sino-US trade war makes us realize the necessity of semiconductor industry for national security and development.People’s demand for semiconductor localization is increasingly strong.More and more enterprises participate in the semiconductor industry,and the role of enterprise value evaluation is increasingly prominent.In this paper,the concept,characteristics and value composition of semiconductor industry are described in detail,and its value composition is divided into existing asset value and potential profit opportunity value.Calculate the enterprise value are discussed the commonly used three kinds of methods: cost method and income method and market method,in the traditional enterprise value evaluation,the applicability of these three methods is higher,but due to the semiconductor enterprise management features and value evaluation,the use of traditional evaluation methods often lead to the valuation result is lower than actual value.Therefore,on the basis of traditional evaluation methods,this paper introduces real option method to build a value evaluation model.FCFF model of traditional evaluation method is used to evaluate the value of existing assets with certainty,and then b-S model of real option method is used to evaluate the value of uncertain options.Considering that the parameter selection in B-S model is too rigid,fuzzy mathematics is introduced to modify the underlying asset value and the strike price of the underlying asset in the traditional B-S model,and a fuzzy real option model is constructed.Based on the above analysis,this paper takes SAN ’an Optoelectronics,a typical representative of the semiconductor industry,as a case study,and compares the enterprise value calculated by FCFF model,FCFF model combined with traditional B-S model,FCFF model combined with fuzzy B-S model with the market value of the target enterprise on the base date of evaluation.Verify the feasibility of the semiconductor enterprise valuation model constructed in this paper.The results show that :（1）compared with traditional industries,semiconductor enterprises will face more uncertainties in the actual operation.Therefore,in the process of valuation,in addition to considering the value added brought by existing assets,we should also fully consider the impact of potential profitability on enterprise value.（2）Through the value analysis of SAN ’an Optoelectronics,it is found that the current asset value calculated by FCFF model is far lower than the total market value of the enterprise on the base date of evaluation,while the overall value calculated by combining real option method is closer to the market value of the enterprise.（3）Although the enterprise value evaluation model combined with real option method can evaluate the enterprise value more completely,it also has certain limitations.The choice of its parameters is a fixed value,so it is difficult to obtain accurate value in practice,which cannot accurately reflect the actual situation.In this paper,the fuzzy mathematics theory is applied to the traditional B-S model,and the current value of the underlying asset and the execution price of the underlying asset are fuzzy processed by the Chinese economic uncertainty index,so as to realize the optimization of the traditional B-S model and make its value more reasonable.With the examples of three Ann photovoltaic enterprise,through calculation found by combining the fuzzy real option method to calculate the enterprise value more in line with the assessment of the market value of the base date,which also verifies the theory of fuzzy mathematics thought into the real option model of rationality,semiconductor companies for practice assessment provides the certain reference significance.