Forty-five Years Of The Spiral Of Silence:Inception,Development And Status

"The spiral of silence" has a history of 45 years since its birth in 1974.In 1974,when the theory of strong effect and the theory of limited effect were on the rise in western academic circles,Neumann brought us back to the theory of strong effect.Before the birth of the "silent spiral",the public opinion research,the mass communication research and the public opinion theory of the western academic communication had been disjointed,but Neumann tried to reconnect the three together.After the theory was put forward,the academic community raised objections one after another,and Neumann constantly used new investigation tools to supplement and improve the theory.However,with the rapid development of the Internet,a new round of questions has been raised about whether it can play a role in the Internet era.This paper tries to clarify the process of "spiral of silence" from the background before its birth to the continuous development of academic questions at the beginning of its birth,and then to the evolution of a new form in the Internet era.The first part of the article introduces the background of the birth of the theory,introduces Neumann's personal life,and focuses on Neumann's questioned fascist background.In addition,the historical background of the birth of the theory is also introduced,including the research progress of the western communication circle at the beginning of the theory and the two German elections that prompted Neumann to initiate the research on the "spiral of silence".In the second part,the paper analyzes the core hypothesis,three key concepts and the research methods adopted by Neumann in studying the theory.And the five main questions in the academic circle after the birth of the theory.The article also sorts out Neumann's response;The third part focuses on the development of the "spiral of silence" in the Internet era.Some scholars think that this theory is no longer applicable,others think that it still exists,and others put forward three new forms: "the reverse silent spiral","the changing spiral" and "the double spiral of silence".In the fourth part,the paper mainly discusses the application of "the spiral of silence" in sociology,politics,psychology and other related disciplines,and the intersection and correlation between "the spiral of silence" and "the third person effect","multiple ignorance","frame theory","butterfly effect" and "opinion leader".There are still many shortcomings in the study of "the spiral of silence".Firstly,the current research on the "silent spiral" is still at the micro level,and there is a lack of quantitative research on the macro test of the whole theory.Through extensive reading and analysis of the western literature and Chinese literature on this theory,it is found that most of the current studies on the "silent spiral" in western academic circles adopt quantitative research and test each hypothesis of the theory separately,and the research quality of this theory has declined in recent years.Qualitative research is mainly used in China,but in recent years,the quantity of quantitative research on this theory is gradually increasing.The most significant contribution of domestic academic circles is to put forward the "reverse silent spiral" and develop the theory.However,although the number of studies on this theory is large,the content is seriously homogenized.Secondly,the "spiral of silence" has had the background of psychology,sociology,political science and other disciplines since its birth.The current research mainly focuses on the scholars of communication,but there are still some deficiencies in the interdisciplinary research.