An Analysis Of The Working Mechanism Of “Spiral Of Silence” Hypothesis In Scottish Independence Referendum

The hypothesis of “the Spiral of Silence”, as a communication theory initiated by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann forty years ago, has been revised and improved through during the process when its applicability was constantly challenged. But the question remains whether this theory can still be applied to the research of public opinion in a thoroughly-changed communication environment.This paper, centering on the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, tries to apply this theory into this event and explains its working mechanism here with relevant materials, which also employs statistical method in analyzing the poll data. A process of minority opinion turning into majority opinion was noticed before the Scottish independence referendum, which proves the existence of “anti-the Spiral of Silence” mechanism in certain conditions. These conditions include psychological factors of individuals(like interest expectation, hardcore members, and the influence of the community they live in), and social environmental factors(like the degree of freedom of speech, and the change of media) and factors result from “the Spiral of Silence”, such as “crystallization of opinions”, “chaos of popular will” etc. When the independence referendum comes, strong opinion takes the advantage again under the effect of “the Spiral of Silence”, and eventually would dominate the development of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. In this phase, effects such as “value of expectation”, “backflow of public opinion”, “opinion leader”, “mainstream media”, and “extrusion of emotion” functioned in this phase. This paper, through an examination of Quebec independence referendum in 1995 as a comparison, also verifies, in a preliminary level, the universality of related conclusions to certain extent.It is illustrated that “the Spiral of Silence”, in a new communication context, has developed a richer definition and extension, and takes a more multiple and complex form. So in order to improve its explanatory power for public opinion and communication phenomena, the theory of “the Spiral of Silence” needs constant examination and revision.